Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:53:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
59 0x5934…68e7 world 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate68%21W / 10L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$1
other 19% $0
politics 5% +$1
crypto 3% +$1
sports 3% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 62% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 62% 0% -9.9%
all 31 +1.3% -8.4% 68% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 3% -9.3%
10% -17.1% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.1% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.5% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses21 / 10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage465d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $58 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $69 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $58 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $45 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $12 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $95 −$3 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $57 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 04 $15 +$1 +4%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $9 $0 +6%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $6 $0 +5%
Will Trump visit Los Angeles by Friday? Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will Alex de Minaur win the 2025 French Open? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend May 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 28 $7 +$1 +15%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? May 25 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? May 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 24 $9 $0 +2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? May 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 22 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 20 $14 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 18 $9 $0 -3%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe Apr 18 $9 $0 -1%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday? Mar 19 $11 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $11 $0 +1%
Solana above $145 on March 14? Mar 13 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $11 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $47 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $38 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $20 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $58 11h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $19 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $34 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $5 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $43 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $15 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $15 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $17 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $11 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $45 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $7 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $8 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $28 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $16 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $8 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $15 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $64 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $64 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $12 13d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 13d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.38 · official $46.80 (match) · 103 history records