Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:49:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

59 0x5935…facc other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$12 (-2%) realized −$21 · open +$9

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip

Net edge-14%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate44%8W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$34per market

Trades / day3.8pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit45%portable

Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$66

7 days−$15

14 days−$20

30 days−$20

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)-10.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	+4.9%	-5.1%	47%	47%	-0.5%
≤30d	18	-0.9%	-10.4%	44%	44%	-1.4%
≤90d	18	-0.9%	-10.4%	44%	44%	-1.4%
all	18	-0.9%	-10.4%	44%	44%	-1.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-10.4%	44%	-1.4%
10%	-18.9%	44%	-10.8%
15%	-26.8%	44%	-19.4%
20%	-33.9%	39%	-27.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 25% · top 2 45% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +6% → late -8% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$27 vs −$23 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.92 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage

Net worth$65

Realized−$21

Unrealized+$9

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses8 / 10

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)18 / 20

History coverage11d

Avg bet$34

Trades / day3.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	60¢	80¢	$31	$42	+$11 (+34%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$25	$23	−$2 (-7%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$40	+$25	+62%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	Jun 19	$8	−$7	-88%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$34	+$15	+46%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 18	$20	+$18	+89%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$18	+$25	+138%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 17	$61	−$13	-21%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$90	−$69	-77%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$21	+$11	+51%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$89	−$27	-30%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$10	+$23	+227%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$42	−$42	-99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$51	+$42	+82%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$11	−$11	-98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$50	−$39	-78%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$50	+$53	+106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Jun 08	$5	−$5	-94%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	60¢	$31	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$66	1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	3¢	$1	3h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$8	14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$40	14h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	73¢	$49	20h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$10	24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	49¢	$34	24h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	97¢	$44	45h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	40¢	$18	2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	8¢	$18	2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$20	2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	8¢	$20	2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	14¢	$10	2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	8¢	$10	2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$5	3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	6¢	$2	3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	7¢	$6	3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	36¢	$32	3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	SELL Yes	47¢	$32	3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$21	3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	13¢	$13	3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	54¢	$56	3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	68¢	$38	3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	35¢	$20	3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	23¢	$13	3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	41¢	$33	3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	65¢	$38	4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	64¢	$49	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.76 · official $65.28 (match) · 52 history records