Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:53:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
59 0x5936…bdcc weather 1519 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 80d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$168 (+0%) realized +$169 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%1429W / 50L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day25.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,251now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$123
other 0% −$4
politics 0% $0
sports 0% +$3
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -43.2% -48.6% 33% 33% -48.2%
≤30d 35 -3.5% -12.7% 94% 3% -9.4%
≤90d 1479 +0.2% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.3%
all 1479 +0.2% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 0% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.69 per $1 lost it wins $2.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$1,251
Realized+$169
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses1429 / 50
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions40
Markets (closed)1479 / 1519
History coverage80d ⚠
Avg bet$36
Trades / day25.5
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 1479 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 46°C on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C or below on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 42°C on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C or higher on June 28? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C or higher on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C or higher on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C or higher on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C on June 28? No 100¢ 99¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 29? No 100¢ 99¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C or higher on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C or below on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or below on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 73°F or below on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C or below on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on June 28? No 99¢ 100¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 4? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on June 3? Jun 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C or below on June 3? Jun 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or below on June 3? Jun 03 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C or below on June 3? Jun 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 2? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or below on June 2? Jun 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 56-57°F on June Jun 02 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 73°F or below on June 1? Jun 02 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on June 1? Jun 02 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C or below on June 1? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 73°F or below on May 31? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 59°F or below on May 31? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on May 31? Jun 01 $120 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on May 31? Jun 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 57°F or below on May 29? May 30 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 65°F or below on May 28? May 29 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 61°F or below on May 28? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on May 28? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C or below on May 28? May 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 28? May 28 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or below on May 28? May 28 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 55°F or below on May 27? May 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 77°F or below on May 19? May 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 51°C on May 26? May 26 $4 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 50°C on May 25? May 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 67°F or below on May 22? May 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C or below on May 1 May 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C or below on May 19? May 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 65°F or below on May 19? May 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 24°C on May 18? May 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 23°C or below on May 18 May 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C on May 18? May 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 17°C or below on May 18 May 22 $130 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 26°C or below on May 18? May 22 $77 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or below on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on June 28? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 73°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C or higher on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or below on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C or higher on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $30 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C or higher on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $30 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C or higher on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $40 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C or below on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $30 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $40 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or below on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $20 6h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $20 6h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $50 6h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $30 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $20 7h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C or below on June 2 BUY No 100¢ $20 7h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $30 7h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $40 7h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C or below on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $30 7h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 63°F or below on June 2 BUY No 99¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $20 7h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on June 28 BUY No 99¢ $23 7h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $20 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,251.33 · official $1,251.33 (match) · 3500 history records