Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:40:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
59 0x5936…7eda other 18 markets active 7d ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$5 (+2%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate89%16W / 2L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$1
tech 35% +$3
world 9% $0
finance 9% $0
politics 5% $0
sports 3% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +6.2% -3.9% 100% 50% -5.3%
≤30d 3 +3.8% -6.0% 67% 33% -7.4%
≤90d 14 -1.9% -11.3% 86% 21% -8.3%
all 18 -1.4% -10.8% 89% 17% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 17% -8.3%
10% -19.3% 6% -17.1%
15% -27.1% 0% -25.1%
20% -34.3% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.66 per $1 lost it wins $2.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses16 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage137d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $26 +$3 +11%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 05 $55 −$1 -1%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 22 $26 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 19 $26 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 15 $27 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 13 $22 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 29 $2 −$2 -96%
Knicks vs. Thunder Apr 29 $2 +$1 +32%
Clippers vs. Bucks Apr 29 $3 $0 +14%
Wizards vs. Trail Blazers Apr 29 $5 $0 +10%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026? Mar 29 $4 $0 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Mar 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66? Mar 29 $13 $0 +0%
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more? Feb 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will the next government funding bill be passed on January 31, 2026? Feb 06 $3 $0 +0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? Feb 06 $9 $0 +0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 06 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 6d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $29 6d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $26 18d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $28 18d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 91¢ $27 32d
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $26 35d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? SELL No 97¢ $26 35d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? BUY No 96¢ $26 37d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 85¢ $27 37d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 88¢ $28 39d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 94¢ $27 39d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 93¢ $27 41d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 98¢ $22 55d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 55d
Knicks vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 76¢ $2 86d
Wizards vs. Trail Blazers BUY Trail Blazers 91¢ $5 86d
Clippers vs. Bucks BUY Clippers 88¢ $3 86d
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66? BUY No 100¢ $13 135d
Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $4 135d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY No 100¢ $10 135d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? BUY No 100¢ $9 143d
Will the next government funding bill be passed on January 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 143d
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 143d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 143d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records