Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:52:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
59 0x5937…cc97 sports 253 markets active 2h ago coverage 585d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$125 (+1%) realized +$129 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%133W / 115L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$202
7 days−$220
14 days−$260
30 days−$260
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$390
crypto 13% −$151
other 5% −$127
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -22.9% -30.3% 36% 36% -30.3%
≤30d 43 -24.7% -31.9% 35% 35% -33.1%
≤90d 44 -23.3% -30.6% 36% 36% -30.3%
all 248 +0.0% -9.5% 54% 53% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 53% -7.9%
10% -18.2% 50% -16.7%
15% -26.1% 46% -24.8%
20% -33.3% 41% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$29 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

585d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized+$129
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses133 / 115
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)248 / 253
History coverage585d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $24 $28 +$4 (+15%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 51¢ 52¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $16 $12 −$4 (-25%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -8%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $43 −$43 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $67 −$66 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $4 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $4 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$20 +323%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $64 −$63 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $3 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $33 +$30 +90%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $12 +$31 +250%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $9 +$6 +60%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$22 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$12 +48%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $33 −$33 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $104 +$59 +57%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $18 +$4 +24%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $34 −$34 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $29 +$20 +70%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 +$15 +250%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $41 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +95%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$9 +93%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$9 +93%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $80 +$61 +76%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 10 $41 −$40 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $51 +$19 +37%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs JD Gaming (+2.5) Mar 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5 Mar 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Spurs vs. Clippers: O/U 234.5 Mar 17 $50 −$1 -2%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 17 $54 +$27 +49%
Jazz vs. Kings: 1H Moneyline Mar 16 $3 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 16 $49 −$48 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 51¢ $26 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 4h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 18h
Ghana vs. Panama: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 58¢ $43 19h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $67 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 25h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 28h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 28h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $14 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $29 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $3 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $15 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $17 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $25 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $25 3d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.07 · official $92.07 (match) · 501 history records