Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:47:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x593a…b9f4 crypto 162 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$283 (-9%) realized −$283 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate64%103W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day62.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days−$471
14 days−$361
30 days−$361
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$396
crypto 30% −$86
sports 25% +$119
culture 0% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 -6.1% -15.0% 63% 34% -24.8%
≤30d 161 -5.3% -14.3% 64% 35% -20.1%
≤90d 161 -5.3% -14.3% 64% 35% -20.1%
all 161 -5.3% -14.3% 64% 35% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 35% -20.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 12% -27.7%
15% -30.0% 9% -34.7%
20% -36.8% 5% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$15 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$283
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses103 / 58
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)161 / 162
History coverage8d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day62.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $39 +$21 +55%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $9 +$16 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$3 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $16 +$7 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$4 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $9 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $14 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$1 -12%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$6 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$22 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $13 −$11 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $14 −$9 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 21 $6 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$5 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$3 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $35 +$10 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $14 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 21 $6 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 64¢ $16 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 64¢ $4 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 64¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $4 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.79 · official $49.79 (match) · 621 history records