Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:11:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x593e…31b2 crypto 110 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,265 (-30%) realized −$1,168 · open −$97
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate28%30W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day25.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$647
14 days−$1,284
30 days−$1,284
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$1,136
sports 9% −$191
other 6% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-36.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -17.5% -25.4% 33% 30% -30.0%
≤30d 107 -30.2% -36.8% 28% 26% -41.7%
≤90d 107 -30.2% -36.8% 28% 26% -41.7%
all 107 -30.2% -36.8% 28% 26% -41.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.8% 26% -41.7%
10% ← realistic here -42.9% 26% -47.3%
15% -48.4% 26% -52.4%
20% -53.5% 26% -57.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -65% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$31 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$1,168
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses30 / 77
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)107 / 110
History coverage8d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day25.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Heung-Min Son be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Over 13¢ 2¢ $100 $19 −$81 (-81%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $32 $16 −$16 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $29 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 19 $33 −$31 -95%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $51 −$15 -29%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $31 −$6 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 19 $32 −$31 -96%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $82 −$18 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 19 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $52 +$31 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $80 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 19 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $47 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $63 +$124 +196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $37 +$77 +210%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $36 +$26 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $37 +$57 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $27 −$26 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$89 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 18 $79 −$26 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 18 $95 −$91 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$13 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $59 +$76 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $33 +$36 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$30 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$24 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 18 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $13 +$19 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 18 $17 −$4 -24%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$13 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$26 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$9 +56%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $108 −$76 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$39 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$26 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$39 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$37 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $29 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $33 20m
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $36 24m
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $25 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $32 28m
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $32 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $42 1h
Will Heung-Min Son be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $41 1h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 2h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $11 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 13¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $187 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $52 2h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $114 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $62 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $94 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.20 · official $75.20 (match) · 205 history records