Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:22:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
59 0x593e…386a other 86 markets active 20h ago coverage 314d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized −$53 · open +$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate45%20W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$424now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$58
crypto 30% −$45
economics 4% +$2
sports 2% −$1
world 2% −$6
politics 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -11.8% -20.2% 41% 36% -9.9%
≤30d 22 -11.8% -20.2% 41% 36% -9.9%
≤90d 22 -11.8% -20.2% 41% 36% -9.9%
all 44 -20.3% -27.8% 45% 39% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.8% 39% -28.4%
10% -34.8% 39% -35.3%
15% -41.1% 25% -41.5%
20% -46.8% 20% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

314d coverage
Net worth$424
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$55
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses20 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions42
Markets (closed)44 / 86
History coverage314d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 36¢ $50 $69 +$19 (+38%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 65¢ $24 $32 +$9 (+38%)
Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 82¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-4%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 86¢ $12 $25 +$12 (+97%)
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 32¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+20%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $15 $20 +$4 (+27%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+15%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+43%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 28¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 72¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 70¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Africa reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 96¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+8%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 69¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+86%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 67¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will New Zealand reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 92¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 88¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+16%)
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 81¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 82¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 86¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +24%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +124%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -81%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +114%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +124%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$3 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 13 $5 $0 -5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$7 +113%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +197%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Oct 11 $30 −$17 -55%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October? Oct 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 07 $70 +$17 +24%
Will Bitcoin dip to $105K in September? Sep 25 $5 +$4 +75%
Will Solana reach $225 in September? Sep 09 $5 +$1 +26%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Sep 05 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Solana reach $240 before 2026? Aug 26 $5 $0 +9%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August? Aug 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in August? Aug 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $111K in August? Aug 24 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Solana reach $230 in August? Aug 23 $1 $0 +50%
Will Solana reach $210 in August? Aug 22 $1 $0 +29%
US national Ethereum reserve in 2025? Aug 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Aug 22 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in August? Aug 22 $3 +$3 +89%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in August? Aug 22 $6 +$5 +77%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Aug 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum above $4400 on August 13? Aug 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum above $4400 on August 15? Aug 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum above $4200 on August 13? Aug 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump meet with Putin in Alaska on August 15? Aug 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 20h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 20h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 35¢ $6 21h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 3d
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 3d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 72¢ $10 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 12¢ $0 3d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 3d
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 70¢ $2 4d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1 4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 4d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 4d
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $1 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 4d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 70¢ $3 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 4d
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 42¢ $5 4d
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 4d
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $5 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $424.49 · official $424.51 (match) · 138 history records