Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:32:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

59 0x5940…cf02 politics 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 686d

RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$66 (-24%) realized −$45 · open −$21

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -61% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip

Net edge-65%after slip

Net WR14%break-even

Win rate29%2W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$35per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit88%portable

Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 686d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +14%

net ROI/market (all)-64.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	7	-61.2%	-64.9%	29%	14%	-78.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-64.9%	14%	-78.6%
10%	-68.3%	14%	-80.6%
15%	-71.3%	14%	-82.5%
20%	-74.1%	14%	-84.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 95% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -61% · $-wt -76% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$14 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.06 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

686d coverage

Net worth$36

Realized−$45

Unrealized−$21

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses2 / 5

Open positions1

Markets (closed)7 / 8

History coverage686d

Avg bet$35

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	5¢	3¢	$57	$36	−$21 (-37%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Nov 03	$6	+$4	+70%
Will Trump say "Mars" during Elon interview?	Aug 13	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" during Elon interview?	Aug 13	$15	−$15	-100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" during Elon interview?	Aug 13	$25	−$25	-100%
Will Trump say "Weird" during Elon interview?	Aug 13	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Trump say "Censor" or "Censorship" during Elon interview?	Aug 13	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" in Aug?	Aug 13	$10	$0	+2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	4¢	$7	13m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	5¢	$31	18m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	6¢	$21	49m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	15¢	$112	51m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	17¢	$133	53m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	7¢	$100	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	18¢	$34	1h
Will Trump say "Mars" during Elon interview?	BUY Yes	13¢	$10	673d
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" during Elon interview?	BUY Yes	30¢	$5	673d
Will Trump say "Crypto" during Elon interview?	BUY Yes	18¢	$5	673d
Will Trump say "Weird" during Elon interview?	BUY Yes	18¢	$10	673d
Will Trump say "Censor" or "Censorship" during Elon interview?	BUY Yes	37¢	$5	673d
Will Trump say "Censor" or "Censorship" during Elon interview?	BUY Yes	65¢	$5	673d
Will Trump say "Crypto" during Elon interview?	BUY Yes	36¢	$10	673d
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" during Elon interview?	BUY Yes	37¢	$10	673d
Will Trump say "Crypto" during Elon interview?	BUY Yes	54¢	$10	673d
Will Trump say "Crypto" in Aug?	BUY Yes	98¢	$10	684d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	59¢	$6	686d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.66 · official $35.66 (match) · 20 history records