Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:15:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5940…b29e world 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate33%7W / 14L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% +$3
other 10% −$3
sports 5% +$3
tech 2% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)+7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -6.3% -15.2% 0% 0% -17.8%
≤30d 12 +26.4% +14.4% 17% 8% -9.6%
≤90d 12 +26.4% +14.4% 17% 8% -9.6%
all 21 +18.6% +7.3% 33% 10% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.3% 10% -8.9%
10% -2.9% 10% -17.6%
15% -12.3% 10% -25.6%
20% -20.9% 10% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses7 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage490d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $9 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $24 −$3 -12%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $43 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $104 +$5 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $48 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $38 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $38 −$3 -8%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $46 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 08 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 11 $2 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 29 $8 $0 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 12 $11 $0 +0%
Delaware State vs. Morgan State Mar 03 $16 −$5 -32%
Campbell vs. North Carolina A&T Mar 03 $8 +$8 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $40 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 27h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $20 30h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 30h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $24 33h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $43 8d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $43 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $40 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 76¢ $28 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 76¢ $10 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $42 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $42 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $38 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $4 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $34 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $27 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $12 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 73¢ $4 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 72¢ $33 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $2 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $2 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $30 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 49¢ $32 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 49¢ $6 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.34 · official $39.89 (match) · 71 history records