Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:14:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
59 0x5942…4c7c world 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$626 (+76%) realized +$626 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +194% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +166% what you keep after slip
Net edge+166%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$2
politics 38% +$1
crypto 8% +$7
other 7% +$617
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+166.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +2.9% -6.9% 75% 25% -8.4%
≤30d 6 +194.5% +166.4% 83% 33% +59.4%
≤90d 6 +194.5% +166.4% 83% 33% +59.4%
all 6 +194.5% +166.4% 83% 33% +59.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +166.4% 33% +59.4%
10% +140.9% 17% +44.1%
15% +117.6% 17% +30.2%
20% +96.3% 17% +17.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +76% too few recent
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +194% · $-wt +76% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$126 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$626
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage11d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? Jun 23 $314 +$1 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? Jun 23 $314 $0 +0%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? Jun 22 $41 $0 +0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? Jun 22 $64 +$7 +11%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 12 $54 +$617 +1150%
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $39 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $316 31m
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $314 1h
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $314 1h
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $314 1h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $41 21h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $41 21h
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $71 22h
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $32 22h
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $32 22h
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? BUY Yes 8¢ $27 11d
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? BUY Yes 8¢ $27 11d
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $41 11d
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $19 11d
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $20 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records