Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:01:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5943…9193 crypto 191 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$644 (-4%) realized −$644 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate68%130W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$379now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$56
14 days+$56
30 days−$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$742
other 2% +$7
world 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +9.2% -1.2% 80% 30% -7.6%
≤30d 36 +0.8% -8.8% 75% 44% -11.7%
≤90d 191 -0.1% -9.6% 68% 48% -13.4%
all 191 -0.1% -9.6% 68% 48% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 48% -13.4%
10% -18.3% 34% -21.7%
15% -26.2% 18% -29.3%
20% -33.4% 10% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$54 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$379
Realized−$644
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses130 / 61
Open positions0
Markets (closed)191 / 191
History coverage89d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 191 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $304 +$79 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 23 $314 −$83 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 23 $201 +$7 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $304 +$59 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 23 $302 +$14 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 23 $201 +$17 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $114 +$98 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 23 $418 −$149 -36%
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 23 $301 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 23 $200 +$6 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 31 $184 −$180 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 31 $133 +$47 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 31 $121 +$12 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 31 $82 +$39 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 31 $71 +$13 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 31 $41 +$19 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 31 $41 +$11 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 31 $40 +$6 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 31 $21 +$12 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 31 $242 −$201 -83%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 31 $220 +$5 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 31 $41 −$40 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 31 $41 −$9 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 30 $204 −$164 -80%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 30 $303 +$47 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 30 $224 +$73 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 30 $224 +$70 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 30 $405 −$120 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 30 $120 +$3 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 30 $301 +$14 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 30 $203 +$42 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 30 $103 +$55 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 30 $201 +$15 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 30 $176 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 30 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 30 $202 +$32 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 10 $142 −$142 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 10 $115 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 10 $100 +$19 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 10 $106 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 10 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 10 $93 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 10 $97 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 10 $5 +$4 +75%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 04 $168 −$164 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 04 $25 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 04 $137 +$38 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 04 $9 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 04 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $203 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $202 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $208 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $201 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $363 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $203 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $316 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $202 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $218 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $153 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $116 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $204 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $200 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 23d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 23d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 23d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $379.38 · official $379.38 (match) · 556 history records