Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:58:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5945…5971 crypto 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$53 (+3%) realized +$50 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%17W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$302
7 days+$250
14 days+$167
30 days+$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$66
other 10% +$95
sports 8% +$141
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +47.3% +33.3% 67% 67% +41.8%
≤30d 40 -6.1% -15.0% 42% 40% -1.5%
≤90d 40 -6.1% -15.0% 42% 40% -1.5%
all 40 -6.1% -15.0% 42% 40% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 40% -1.5%
10% -23.2% 38% -10.9%
15% -30.6% 35% -19.6%
20% -37.4% 30% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$32 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses17 / 23
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 45
History coverage10d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Yes 23¢ 24¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $41 +$96 +235%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $51 +$72 +142%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $51 +$42 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $29 +$36 +125%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $101 +$80 +79%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 20 $26 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $56 +$33 +58%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$20 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $155 +$125 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $151 +$21 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $103 +$64 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $152 +$44 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$140 +529%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$48 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$33 +313%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 23¢ $41 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $137 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $41 3h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? AND Will Belgium win on 202 BUY 2¢ $10 14h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 25¢ $36 31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 41¢ $51 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 47h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $182 47h
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals SELL Yes 1¢ $1 47h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 2d
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score AND Will Brazil win on 2026- BUY 19¢ $20 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AND BUY 8¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $27 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $27 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $27 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $27 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.61 · official $42.61 (match) · 136 history records