Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:17:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5948…2d49 weather 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$135 (-18%) realized −$82 · open −$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%9W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -18.5% -26.3% 20% 20% -22.5%
≤30d 46 -18.5% -26.3% 20% 20% -22.5%
≤90d 46 -18.5% -26.3% 20% 20% -22.5%
all 46 -18.5% -26.3% 20% 20% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 20% -22.5%
10% -33.3% 20% -29.9%
15% -39.8% 20% -36.7%
20% -45.7% 20% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$15 · ×3.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$82
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses9 / 37
Open positions5
Markets (closed)46 / 51
History coverage6d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 18? No 24¢ 14¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-38%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? No 19¢ 8¢ $15 $6 −$9 (-57%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? No 23¢ 2¢ $15 $1 −$14 (-91%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? No 17¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$10 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 17? No 20¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $16 +$47 +304%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 +$44 +282%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 +$58 +373%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 −$15 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 15? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 16 $16 +$45 +292%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 +$46 +298%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 +$43 +291%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 15 $16 +$55 +354%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $16 +$44 +282%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $16 +$59 +376%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 24¢ $16 16m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 24¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 24¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 20¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 17¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $63 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 16¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 23¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 24¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 20¢ $16 10h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $59 23h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 22¢ $16 23h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $74 24h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 25¢ $16 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 24¢ $13 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 13¢ $3 24h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 24¢ $4 24h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 19¢ $12 24h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 24¢ $16 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 24¢ $6 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 23¢ $10 26h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 24¢ $7 32h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 21¢ $3 32h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 22¢ $6 32h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? BUY No 22¢ $6 36h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? BUY No 22¢ $9 36h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $61 36h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 24¢ $16 37h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 24¢ $13 41h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 20¢ $3 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.86 · official $17.87 (match) · 116 history records