Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:58:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5949…5fc4 crypto 656 markets active 0h ago coverage 249d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$490 (-3%) realized −$465 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%280W / 366L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$122
14 days−$61
30 days−$152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$182
sports 36% −$728
other 9% +$76
world 6% +$345
politics 1% +$16
finance 1% +$11
tech 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -17.2% -25.1% 38% 38% -24.8%
≤30d 167 -9.2% -17.9% 38% 38% -14.8%
≤90d 464 -33.2% -39.6% 27% 23% -30.5%
all 646 -3.5% -12.6% 43% 40% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 40% -12.8%
10% -21.0% 28% -21.2%
15% -28.6% 24% -28.8%
20% -35.6% 20% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$12 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$465
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses280 / 366
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions8
Markets (closed)646 / 656
History coverage249d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 646 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tread FDV above $80M one day after launch Yes 32¢ 33¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+3%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-46%)
Will the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+35%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-63%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 32¢ 12¢ $4 $1 −$2 (-64%)
Macron out by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-94%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-98%)
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 104 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $18 +$27 +145%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) AND Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5 Jun 25 $25 +$39 +154%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Korea Republic (-3.5) AND Jun 25 $27 +$32 +115%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 +$11 +72%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $35 +$33 +97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $119 −$81 -68%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $20 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $41 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 20 $49 +$51 +104%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $13 +$17 +124%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +71%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $67 −$67 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $20 −$2 -8%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $43 −$42 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $57 +$27 +48%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $102 +$98 +97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $24 +$26 +109%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 09 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 09 $11 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 09 $25 +$24 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 08 $15 +$6 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$8 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -95%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 10m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 10m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 84¢ $29 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $15 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 23¢ $10 9h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 0.5 AND Norway vs. France: France O/U 2 BUY 26¢ $10 13h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals AND Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 AND Erling Haal BUY 14¢ $10 22h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 10¢ $2 25h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 87¢ $32 26h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $18 27h
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) AND Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5 BUY 39¢ $25 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Korea Republic (-3.5) AND BUY 46¢ $27 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY 57¢ $15 3d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $35 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 50¢ $51 5d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $38 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 32¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 39¢ $17 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 39¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 39¢ $2 5d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $105 6d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $14 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 41¢ $40 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $41 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $20 6d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $35 6d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 49¢ $45 6d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 49¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.48 · official $32.48 (match) · 2234 history records