Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x594e…1459 weather 223 markets active 3h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$115 (-11%) realized −$124 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate25%54W / 161L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$83
7 days−$69
14 days−$118
30 days−$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$78
weather 41% −$28
other 3% −$16
sports 2% −$8
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 146 -0.7% -10.2% 29% 27% -21.2%
≤30d 204 -16.9% -24.8% 25% 24% -24.4%
≤90d 215 -18.5% -26.2% 25% 24% -25.2%
all 215 -18.5% -26.2% 25% 24% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 24% -25.2%
10% -33.3% 23% -32.3%
15% -39.7% 19% -38.9%
20% -45.7% 17% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$124
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses54 / 161
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)215 / 223
History coverage54d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 215 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Yes 19¢ 100¢ $4 $20 +$16 (+426%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Yes 36¢ 100¢ $7 $20 +$13 (+178%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 12¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-52%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 146 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$17 +694%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 17 $7 +$13 +201%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $9 +$11 +115%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 17? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 17? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 +$11 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -93%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$6 +39%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$8 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -95%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 −$6 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$5 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -93%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$4 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$6 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $35 +$56 +163%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 2h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 41¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 22h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 23h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 23h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $6 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $3 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $0 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 34h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 35h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 35h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 35h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 35h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $0 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $8 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.59 · official $63.59 (match) · 518 history records