Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:32:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x594e…1c11 weather 202 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 13d only
✗ bot/MM pace (245 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$138,891 (+79%) realized +$138,932 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +684% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +504% what you keep after slip
Net edge+504%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate64%395W / 221L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$865per market
Trades / day244.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8,793now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$106,980
7 days+$107,611
14 days+$110,762
30 days+$110,762
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$3,816
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (245 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+609.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 511 +821.4% +733.6% 63% 56% +12.5%
≤30d 616 +683.8% +609.2% 64% 49% -2.2%
≤90d 616 +683.8% +609.2% 64% 49% -2.2%
all 616 +683.8% +609.2% 64% 49% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover244.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +609.2% 49% -2.2%
10% ← realistic here +541.3% 47% -11.6%
15% +479.4% 46% -20.1%
20% +422.6% 46% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +65% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +684% · $-wt +65% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late +1388% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
16.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$309 vs −$50 · ×6.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.96 per $1 lost it wins $10.96
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$8,793
Realized+$138,932
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses395 / 221
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions11
Markets (closed)616 / 202
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$865
Trades / day244.9
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 616 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 17? Yes 94¢ 98¢ $2,817 $2,914 +$96 (+3%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $2,167 $2,181 +$14 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $903 $911 +$8 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 17? Yes 95¢ 98¢ $781 $803 +$22 (+3%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $565 $569 +$3 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $549 $552 +$3 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on June 17? No 95¢ 99¢ $459 $477 +$19 (+4%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $297 $299 +$2 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 17? No 96¢ 98¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+3%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 17? No 5¢ 2¢ $40 $19 −$21 (-53%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 17? No 95¢ 100¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+5%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 17? No 3¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $13 $4 −$8 (-66%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 17? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-29%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on June 17? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-77%)
Spread: Lillestrøm SK (-2.5) Lillestrøm SK 20¢ 21¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-63%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on June 18? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-64%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 480 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C or below on Februar Jun 17 $45 +$700 +1567%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 70°F or higher on January 27? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 5? Jun 17 $0 +$3,385 +681484%
Will Santa deliver fewer than 7,900,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 8? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 32-33°F on April 8? Jun 17 $6 +$66 +1177%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on April 20? Jun 17 $0 +$210 +86807%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 12? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -6°C or below on February 2 Jun 17 $9 +$11 +118%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 1? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 17°F or below on March 16? Jun 17 $36 +$315 +877%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or higher on December 1 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on March 5? Jun 17 $7 +$428 +6069%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on December Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C or higher on April 19 Jun 17 $6 +$167 +2958%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 54-55°F on April 26? Jun 17 $8 +$66 +848%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on Apri Jun 17 $1 +$197 +19008%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on Apri Jun 17 $1 +$85 +9759%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 46-47°F on May 4? Jun 17 $0 +$189 +53718%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 66-67°F on January 31 Jun 17 $0 +$82 +528497%
Spread: Toronto FC (-2.5) Jun 17 $1 +$6 +417%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or higher on Apri Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 70°F or higher on April Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C or higher on March 18 Jun 17 $10 +$229 +2200%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on December Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
CF Montréal vs. New York Red Bulls: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$12 -121%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on Apr Jun 17 $16 +$111 +674%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on Apr Jun 17 $12 −$4 -34%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ap Jun 17 $6 +$152 +2451%
Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5) Jun 17 $15 −$22 -146%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 11? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on May 26? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 15? Jun 17 $26 −$23 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on March 23? Jun 17 $13 +$165 +1305%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C or below on May 9? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on April 16? Jun 17 $2 +$87 +4886%
Will Luca Mozzato finish in the top 3 at the 2026 Paris-Roubaix Hauts- Jun 17 $1 +$23 +3886%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on February Jun 17 $0 +$239 +7245712%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 2? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 39-40°F on De Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Spread: Júbilo Iwata (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 26 Jun 17 $7 +$308 +4699%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Apr Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or higher on March 4? Jun 17 $1 +$56 +4917%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on Ja Jun 17 $14 −$91 -653%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 40-41°F on January 2 Jun 17 $2 −$7 -296%
Spread: Vålerenga Fotball (-2.5) Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 80°F or higher on May Jun 17 $2 +$729 +29954%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 39°F or below on Febr Jun 17 $10 +$26 +261%
Spread: Zweigen Kanazawa (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 −$11 -108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on June BUY No 99¢ $75 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $297 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $33 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $3 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 4¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 4¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 4¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 4¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 4¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 4¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 4¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 4¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 4¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,793.15 · official $8,793.18 (match) · 3500 history records