Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:27:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
59 0x594e…dbae crypto 117 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$95 (-1%) realized −$89 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate66%77W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$81
7 days−$85
14 days+$24
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$255
other 4% +$68
sports 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -4.8% -13.9% 54% 54% -12.8%
≤30d 25 -5.9% -14.9% 56% 56% -9.0%
≤90d 116 -7.4% -16.2% 66% 54% -11.4%
all 116 -7.4% -16.2% 66% 54% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 54% -11.4%
10% -24.2% 44% -19.9%
15% -31.5% 23% -27.6%
20% -38.2% 18% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$81 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized−$89
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses77 / 39
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)116 / 117
History coverage89d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 66¢ $120 $114 −$6 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $132 +$81 +62%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $358 −$52 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $256 +$131 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $319 −$81 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$25 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $325 −$88 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $203 +$61 +30%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $159 +$89 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $143 +$27 +19%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists Jun 14 $10 −$7 -70%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $15 +$10 +65%
Kai Havertz: 1+ assists Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $201 +$110 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 31 $30 −$29 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 29 $200 −$198 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 29 $200 +$29 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 29 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 29 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 29 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 29 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Mar 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 29 $176 −$176 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 29 $150 +$13 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 29 $100 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 29 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 29 $200 +$53 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 29 $300 +$67 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 29 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Mar 29 $30 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 29 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 29 $200 +$70 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 29 $190 +$50 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 29 $100 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 29 $110 +$55 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 29 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 29 $200 +$46 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Mar 29 $100 +$21 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $121 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $213 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $132 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $101 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $51 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $105 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $51 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $101 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $118 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $265 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.00 · official $114.00 (match) · 302 history records