Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:21:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
59 0x5950…8c48 politics 151 markets active 0h ago coverage 204d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 203d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$18,878 (+10%) realized +$18,452 · open +$426
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate38%48W / 80L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,263per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$12,781now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 204d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 25% +$3,221
world 20% +$292
finance 20% −$3,865
economics 17% −$1,263
crypto 10% +$2,553
other 7% −$1,514
tech 1% −$778
sports 0% +$16
culture 0% +$455
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +10.2% -0.3% 100% 0% -0.3%
≤30d 5 -30.2% -36.9% 60% 20% -6.7%
≤90d 12 +33.7% +21.0% 67% 50% +3.3%
all 128 -6.4% -15.3% 38% 24% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 24% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 22% -19.0%
15% -30.8% 18% -26.8%
20% -37.6% 13% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$1,109) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +43% → late -56% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$516 vs −$326 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$12,781
Realized+$18,452
Unrealized+$426
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses48 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions25
Markets (closed)128 / 151
History coverage204d ⚠
Avg bet$1,263
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 95¢ $3,849 $3,882 +$33 (+1%)
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 68¢ 99¢ $1,395 $2,053 +$658 (+47%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat? No 76¢ 90¢ $1,066 $1,247 +$181 (+17%)
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 27¢ 48¢ $545 $945 +$400 (+73%)
Trump out as President before GTA VI? Yes 53¢ 50¢ $813 $765 −$48 (-6%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? Yes 21¢ 23¢ $658 $737 +$79 (+12%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 36¢ 44¢ $360 $435 +$75 (+21%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 34¢ 42¢ $340 $425 +$85 (+25%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December? Yes 31¢ 33¢ $310 $331 +$21 (+7%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 11¢ 22¢ $160 $302 +$142 (+89%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 15¢ $288 $247 −$41 (-14%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? Yes 52¢ 54¢ $232 $239 +$7 (+3%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? No 90¢ 100¢ $180 $200 +$20 (+11%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 30¢ 20¢ $297 $195 −$102 (-34%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 1.0% before 2027? No 96¢ 96¢ $167 $168 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $114 $117 +$3 (+3%)
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 69¢ 84¢ $84 $103 +$18 (+22%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? Yes 38¢ 22¢ $175 $102 −$72 (-41%)
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $49 $68 +$20 (+40%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $240 $68 −$172 (-72%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $52 $47 −$5 (-10%)
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $125 $43 −$82 (-66%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? No 45¢ 78¢ $22 $39 +$16 (+72%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $44 $13 −$31 (-70%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Yes 47¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 16 $745 +$76 +10%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $77 −$75 -97%
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 14 $2,073 +$721 +35%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $1,077 −$679 -63%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 10 $405 +$16 +4%
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 21 $189 +$93 +49%
Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.4% by March 31? May 20 $30 +$80 +272%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? May 20 $2,918 −$397 -14%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 20 $580 +$1,420 +245%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 20 $1,841 +$1,668 +91%
Romania No-Confidence vote passes? May 20 $2,665 +$335 +13%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $2,186 −$1,396 -64%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 23? Mar 23 $842 −$842 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 9? Mar 09 $181 −$181 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $475 +$25 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Mar 09 $311 −$311 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 09 $1,815 −$865 -48%
Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.5% by March 31? Mar 08 $105 −$89 -85%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 08 $2,630 +$70 +3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? Mar 05 $2,205 −$844 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 04 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 04 $22 −$22 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 20? Mar 04 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 04 $203 +$81 +40%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 6? Mar 04 $38 −$38 -100%
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on February 2? Mar 04 $115 −$115 -100%
US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026? Mar 04 $148 −$148 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Mar 04 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $72 −$15 -21%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Mar 04 $316 −$316 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $8,729 +$2,766 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 04 $18 −$18 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 12? Mar 04 $2,704 +$1,445 +53%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 20? Mar 04 $5,289 +$9 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? Mar 04 $804 −$784 -98%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 04 $4,457 −$825 -18%
Will Trump nominate Bill Pulte as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump nominate Ron Paul as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 04 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 04 $265 −$265 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 04 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $126 −$126 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78,000 on February 2? Mar 04 $1,617 +$997 +62%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February? Mar 04 $190 −$190 -100%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 2? Mar 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of February? Mar 04 $121 −$121 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 04 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Mar 04 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Mar 04 $39 −$39 -100%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on February 2? Mar 04 $670 −$670 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY Yes 52¢ $236 26m
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 40¢ $80 1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 36¢ $63 1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 35¢ $299 1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 32¢ $164 1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 68¢ $1,336 2h
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 5¢ $46 16h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 74¢ $220 16h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 74¢ $102 16h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 74¢ $148 16h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 74¢ $262 16h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 74¢ $83 16h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 74¢ $148 16h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 74¢ $74 16h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 74¢ $74 16h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 74¢ $117 16h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 74¢ $44 17h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 74¢ $15 17h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 74¢ $97 17h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 74¢ $81 17h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 68¢ $7 18h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 39¢ $384 18h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 20¢ $171 18h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 14¢ $30 18h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 14¢ $44 19h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 48¢ $59 20h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $642 20h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc BUY No 64¢ $9 20h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY No 45¢ $23 20h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 52¢ $90 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,781.28 · official $12,786.17 (match) · 3500 history records