Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T07:08:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5952…7de5 other 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 26L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$365per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$8
other 33% −$4
finance 13% −$1
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 27 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$723) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage93d
Avg bet$365
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Karen Khachanov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 25 $1,220 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 25 $52 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $1,216 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? Jun 25 $1,278 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 12 $98 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 12 $44 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $28 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $693 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $59 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $726 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $723 −$3 -0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May? May 09 $56 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 09 $42 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $736 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 06 $31 $0 -0%
Will Michael have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? May 06 $35 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $759 −$1 -0%
Will Germany be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 06 $720 −$1 -0%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPC? Apr 01 $42 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 01 $26 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? Mar 28 $172 $0 -0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Mar 28 $25 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 28 $75 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Detry win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 24 $168 $0 -0%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $77 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 24 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Karen Khachanov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $1,219 18m
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $52 26m
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 35m
Will Karen Khachanov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $1,176 41m
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 49m
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 59m
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 1h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $185 1h
Will Karen Khachanov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $34 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? SELL No 100¢ $1,011 1h
Will Karen Khachanov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? SELL No 100¢ $265 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1,278 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $98 43d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $84 43d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $44 43d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 43d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $13 43d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 43d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $15 43d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 43d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 43d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $692 46d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $59 46d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 46d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $628 46d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $24 46d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $724 46d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 46d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $699 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 90 history records