Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:42:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5954…21d7 crypto 1177 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$210 (-1%) realized −$210 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate67%792W / 385L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day43.7pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$331
7 days−$754
14 days−$793
30 days−$828
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$1,266
sports 10% +$223
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 505 -11.8% -20.2% 63% 62% -21.3%
≤30d 570 -11.2% -19.6% 61% 59% -18.9%
≤90d 1177 -7.4% -16.2% 67% 48% -13.2%
all 1177 -7.4% -16.2% 67% 48% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 48% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 34% -21.5%
15% -31.6% 15% -29.1%
20% -38.3% 9% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$12 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$210
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses792 / 385
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1177 / 1177
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day43.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1177 Trades
no open positions (182 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$10 +134%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$4 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$3 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$2 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$4 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$3 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$9 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$9 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$4 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$3 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$3 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$6 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$3 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$14 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$24 +178%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$5 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$5 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$4 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$5 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$3 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 13m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $7 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 13m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $8 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $9 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 33m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $9 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 34m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 48m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $8 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $8 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $13 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $13 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $13 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $13 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $13 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $13 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $13 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $13 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $13 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $13 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records