Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:49:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

59 0x5955…db93 sports 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 249d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$257 (-4%) realized −$237 · open −$20

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip

Net edge-22%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate56%19W / 15L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$151per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$28est.

Kalshi-fit97%portable

Net worth$236now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$108

7 days+$52

14 days+$52

30 days+$67

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-21.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	-5.8%	-14.8%	57%	57%	-4.1%
≤30d	16	-6.8%	-15.7%	56%	50%	-5.3%
≤90d	24	-23.2%	-30.5%	46%	42%	-25.4%
all	34	-13.4%	-21.7%	56%	50%	-14.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-21.7%	50%	-14.3%
10%	-29.2%	44%	-22.5%
15%	-36.0%	26%	-30.0%
20%	-42.3%	18%	-36.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

11% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -13% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -15% → late -12% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$43 vs −$74 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.75 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage

Net worth$236

Realized−$237

Unrealized−$20

Win rate (resolved)56%

Wins / losses19 / 15

Est. fees paid−$28

Open positions4

Markets (closed)34 / 38

History coverage249d

Avg bet$151

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 34 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	Spain	83¢	94¢	$100	$113	+$13 (+13%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Spain	55¢	100¢	$40	$72	+$32 (+81%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5	Over	78¢	46¢	$86	$51	−$35 (-40%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5	Under	49¢	0¢	$30	$0	−$30 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	Jun 20	$30	+$20	+67%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5	Jun 20	$41	+$39	+93%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5	Jun 20	$101	+$48	+48%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 18	$65	−$65	-100%
Thunder vs. Spurs	Jun 18	$31	−$31	-100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	Jun 18	$41	−$41	-100%
Spurs vs. Thunder	Jun 18	$21	−$21	-100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$48	−$47	-98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$37	−$9	-24%
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 17	$18	+$12	+67%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$57	+$43	+76%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$202	+$48	+24%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$71	+$31	+44%
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	Jun 14	$101	+$23	+23%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	May 31	$501	+$32	+6%
Spurs vs. Thunder	May 31	$51	−$17	-33%
Spurs vs. Thunder	May 21	$20	−$18	-89%
LoL: PSG Talon vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO1)	May 20	$10	−$10	-100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO1)	May 20	$50	−$50	-100%
LoL: T1 vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO1)	May 20	$90	−$90	-100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO1)	May 20	$145	−$145	-100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5)	May 20	$355	−$280	-79%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks	May 20	$72	+$68	+95%
Spurs vs. Thunder	May 19	$194	+$46	+24%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)	Nov 09	$200	+$117	+59%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs 100 Thieves (BO1)	Oct 31	$271	−$271	-100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5)	Oct 30	$300	+$53	+18%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5)	Oct 29	$650	+$13	+2%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Anyone's Legend (BO3)	Oct 17	$70	+$25	+36%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Top Esports (BO3)	Oct 17	$584	−$15	-3%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Gen.G (BO1)	Oct 16	$108	+$26	+24%
LoL: Top Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO1)	Oct 16	$311	+$39	+12%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO1)	Oct 15	$140	+$38	+27%
LoL: FlyQuest vs T1 (BO1)	Oct 15	$394	+$105	+27%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	SELL Spain	93¢	$112	35m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	78¢	$56	1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	78¢	$15	1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	78¢	$15	1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	BUY Spain	83¢	$201	1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	49¢	$30	1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	55¢	$41	1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	BUY Côte dIvoire	59¢	$30	22h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	67¢	$101	23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	51¢	$41	24h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	47¢	$48	3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	64¢	$65	4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	36¢	$28	4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	46¢	$37	4d
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	59¢	$18	4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	56¢	$57	4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	69¢	$71	6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	84¢	$114	6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	74¢	$121	6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	73¢	$7	6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	73¢	$74	6d
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	SELL Germany	90¢	$124	6d
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	BUY Germany	72¢	$101	6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	BUY Yes	94¢	$501	21d
Spurs vs. Thunder	SELL Thunder	7¢	$7	21d
Spurs vs. Thunder	BUY Thunder	28¢	$31	21d
Spurs vs. Thunder	SELL Thunder	13¢	$2	21d
Spurs vs. Thunder	SELL Thunder	43¢	$24	21d
Spurs vs. Thunder	BUY Thunder	26¢	$20	21d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	21¢	$20	22d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $236.19 · official $236.19 (match) · 125 history records