Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:37:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
59 0x595a…bca8 world 186 markets active 2h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$875 (+4%) realized +$946 · open −$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate71%126W / 52L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$739now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$5
14 days−$610
30 days−$703
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% +$379
other 12% +$2
economics 10% +$832
finance 3% −$128
crypto 2% −$396
sports 1% +$15
tech 1% +$15
politics 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +9.1% -1.3% 57% 43% -9.8%
≤30d 58 -2.1% -11.4% 59% 38% -16.5%
≤90d 126 +10.2% -0.3% 71% 46% -8.8%
all 178 +11.1% +0.5% 71% 42% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.5% 42% -6.0%
10% -9.1% 18% -15.0%
15% -17.9% 13% -23.2%
20% -25.9% 11% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$45 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$739
Realized+$946
Unrealized−$71
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses126 / 52
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions8
Markets (closed)178 / 186
History coverage159d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision? No 67¢ 90¢ $353 $476 +$123 (+35%)
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision? Yes 64¢ 90¢ $141 $199 +$58 (+41%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 94¢ 99¢ $36 $38 +$2 (+5%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 30¢ 14¢ $40 $19 −$21 (-52%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 61¢ 60¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027? No 64¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+49%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? No 34¢ 95¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+178%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 65¢ 0¢ $233 $0 −$233 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14 +$41 +289%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $136 +$15 +11%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 +$7 +16%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$10 +52%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $67 +$4 +7%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $21 +$35 +164%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $28 +$32 +116%
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? Jun 15 $45 +$11 +25%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $33 −$7 -20%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $20 +$16 +77%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $108 +$7 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $41 −$18 -45%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $54 +$72 +134%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $208 +$23 +11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 13 $167 +$15 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $270 −$110 -41%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 11 $39 −$39 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $245 +$23 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $565 −$364 -64%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $235 −$50 -21%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 06 $166 −$157 -95%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $399 −$6 -2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $419 −$376 -90%
Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30? Jun 03 $36 +$5 +14%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 02 $9 +$1 +10%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 01 $100 −$4 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $497 +$42 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $528 +$105 +20%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $9 +$1 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $717 +$80 +11%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $36 −$34 -95%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $167 +$30 +18%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 30 $300 +$37 +12%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in May? May 30 $120 +$20 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $126 +$9 +7%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May? May 28 $177 −$44 -25%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 27 $100 −$8 -8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $201 +$14 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $283 +$17 +6%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 26 $332 −$115 -34%
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest May 25 $301 −$47 -16%
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte May 25 $129 +$39 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 67¢ $55 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 92¢ $55 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $56 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 48¢ $59 14h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY No 53¢ $20 15h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $79 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $151 18h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $27 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $14 22h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $41 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $41 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 29h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? SELL No 100¢ $20 29h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY No 93¢ $37 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $37 29h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY No 93¢ $31 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $24 29h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 30h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 30h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $24 30h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $95 40h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 37¢ $21 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $60 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $28 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $27 2d
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest BUY No 78¢ $15 2d
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest BUY No 78¢ $1 2d
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $17 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $123 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $738.89 · official $738.19 (match) · 1088 history records