Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:07:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x595c…7419 world 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 530d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$12 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate31%24W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$5
politics 26% −$3
other 13% $0
sports 12% −$13
economics 5% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.8% -10.3% 17% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 23 -0.5% -10.0% 39% 4% -10.1%
≤90d 63 -1.6% -11.0% 33% 3% -9.7%
all 78 -4.0% -13.2% 31% 6% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 6% -10.2%
10% -21.5% 3% -18.8%
15% -29.1% 3% -26.7%
20% -36.0% 1% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

530d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses24 / 54
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)78 / 81
History coverage530d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 69¢ 68¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 95¢ 91¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $32 −$1 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $21 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $13 $0 -3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $33 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $29 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $28 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $28 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $32 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $28 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $65 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $54 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $35 −$4 -10%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 -11%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $3 $0 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $58 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $32 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $31 +$2 +7%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 21 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $11 −$2 -20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $34 −$2 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $34 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 18 $34 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 17 $155 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $33 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $70 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $38 $0 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $145 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $35 −$1 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $64 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $57 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $53 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $104 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $4 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $34 +$1 +4%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 15 $108 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $53 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $29 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $29 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $29 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $10 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $18 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $13 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $15 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $32 38h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $32 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $6 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $12 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $13 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $33 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $33 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 24¢ $17 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $13 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $29 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $28 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $28 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $13 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.23 · official $28.35 · 302 history records