Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:54:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
59 0x595d…2e7e other 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$7 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate46%26W / 30L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$3
world 37% −$4
politics 10% $0
sports 5% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 3% +$1
economics 1% +$1
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.4% -9.1% 33% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 14 -0.6% -10.1% 36% 7% -9.9%
≤90d 14 -0.6% -10.1% 36% 7% -9.9%
all 56 +0.5% -9.1% 46% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 2% -9.2%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses26 / 30
Open positions3
Markets (closed)56 / 59
History coverage459d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 81¢ 76¢ $38 $36 −$2 (-6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $37 +$1 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $15 +$3 +18%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $38 −$3 -7%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $39 −$2 -5%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 -19%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 18 $103 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 17 $114 $0 -0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Dec 15 $16 −$1 -4%
Eagles vs. Commanders Dec 15 $16 $0 +0%
Jets vs. Saints Dec 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 04 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 24 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $30 $0 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 22 $15 $0 -0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 22 $15 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 22 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 05 $6 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in July? Jul 03 $6 $0 +1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jul 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4? Jul 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 01 $11 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 26 $11 +$1 +8%
Another US military action against Iran by Sunday? Jun 24 $2 $0 +3%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 08 $8 −$1 -8%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 05 $9 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 05 $3 $0 -3%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 05 $3 $0 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $111K and $113K on June 3? Jun 04 $2 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $9 $0 +5%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Jun 04 $4 $0 -0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jun 01 $8 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $33 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $5 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $20 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $18 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $37 7h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $11 11h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $26 11h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $18 14h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $19 14h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 43h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 43h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 43h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 43h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $29 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $8 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $7 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $42 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $42 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $6 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.20 · official $35.72 (match) · 172 history records