Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:54:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5960…d692 sports 792 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 163d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,372 (+2%) realized +$1,530 · open −$158
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%378W / 524L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Fees−$219est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$3,155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 164d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$1,276
other 20% −$760
world 5% +$546
politics 3% −$130
tech 2% +$12
economics 1% +$283
culture 1% −$191
crypto 1% −$71
weather 0% −$84
finance 0% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 183 -89.7% -90.7% 6% 5% -83.6%
≤30d 214 -65.3% -68.6% 14% 12% -64.3%
≤90d 413 -33.1% -39.4% 33% 31% -31.1%
all 902 -18.4% -26.2% 42% 38% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 38% -19.8%
10% -33.2% 36% -27.4%
15% -39.7% 34% -34.5%
20% -45.6% 31% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$52 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$3,155
Realized+$1,530
Unrealized−$158
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses378 / 524
Est. fees paid−$219
Open positions55
Markets (closed)902 / 792
History coverage164d ⚠
Avg bet$70
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 55 History 902 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 92¢ $354 $366 +$12 (+3%)
Will Maxx Crosby play for Las Vegas Raiders next? Yes 87¢ 81¢ $261 $242 −$19 (-7%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $184 $199 +$15 (+8%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 66¢ 90¢ $133 $181 +$48 (+36%)
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Qatar 86¢ 86¢ $173 $171 −$2 (-1%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 56¢ 72¢ $113 $145 +$32 (+29%)
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 54¢ 69¢ $108 $139 +$32 (+29%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 48¢ 46¢ $144 $136 −$8 (-5%)
Will Jake Paul announce a run for public office in 2026? No 85¢ 85¢ $127 $127 +$1 (+0%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 94¢ 97¢ $94 $97 +$3 (+3%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 86¢ 95¢ $86 $95 +$9 (+11%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 81¢ 90¢ $81 $90 +$10 (+12%)
Will Dricus Du Plessis fight Sean Strickland next? No 86¢ 58¢ $129 $87 −$42 (-33%)
Will Kendrick Lamar have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? No 59¢ 74¢ $59 $74 +$16 (+26%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $52 $74 +$22 (+42%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 71¢ 70¢ $71 $70 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 67¢ 55¢ $85 $70 −$16 (-18%)
Will Ed Sheeran have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $60 $67 +$7 (+12%)
Chud the Builder convicted? No 42¢ 47¢ $55 $62 +$7 (+12%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 25¢ 28¢ $51 $57 +$6 (+12%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $56 $51 −$5 (-8%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $32 $44 +$12 (+36%)
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 445 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Penguins vs. Red Wings Jun 18 $56 −$56 -100%
Oilers vs. Capitals Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Travis Hunter be the 2025-2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Nico Hischier win the 2025–2026 NHL Frank J. Selke Trophy? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Vikings vs. Cowboys Jun 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Dolphins vs. Steelers: O/U 42.5 Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Chiefs vs. Broncos Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Golden Knights Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Devils vs. Bruins Jun 18 $53 −$53 -100%
Will The Weeknd be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Jun 18 $4 −$1 -22%
Will Taylor Swift be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Hurricanes Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Jun 18 $131 −$131 -100%
Miami vs. Texas A&M Jun 18 $57 −$57 -100%
Spread: Old Dominion (-10.5) Jun 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Martin St Louis win the 2025–2026 NHL Jack Adams Award? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -89%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Colts vs. Seahawks Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Cowboys vs. Lions Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Devils vs. Ducks Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Capitals vs. Canadiens Jun 18 $99 −$99 -100%
Oregon vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Bruins Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Chargers vs. Jaguars Jun 18 $58 −$58 -100%
Spread: Jets (-1.5) Jun 18 $57 −$57 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jun 18 $71 −$71 -100%
Sabres vs. Bruins Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Oilers vs. Flames Jun 18 $57 −$57 -100%
Predators vs. Wild Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Avalanche vs. Predators Jun 18 $66 −$66 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force (BO1) Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the AFC North? Jun 18 $126 −$126 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,600 and $3,700 on November 5? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Ashton Jeanty be the 2025-2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Spread: Cowboys (-2.5) Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Troy vs. Old Dominion Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Nancy Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Chiefs vs. Cowboys Jun 18 $193 −$193 -100%
Will Trump talk to Zohran Mamdani in November? Jun 18 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Holly Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Lions (-3.5) Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Jun 18 $58 −$58 -100%
Seahawks vs. Commanders Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Eagles vs. Bills Jun 18 $116 −$116 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G (BO1) Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Micah Parsons win the 2025-26 NFL DPOY? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 39¢ $40 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $53 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $47 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $72 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $144 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 11h
Spread: Canada (-3.5) BUY Qatar 86¢ $17 26h
Spread: Canada (-3.5) BUY Qatar 86¢ $5 26h
Spread: Canada (-3.5) BUY Qatar 86¢ $64 30h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $51 31h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $54 46h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $56 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $34 2d
Spread: Canada (-3.5) BUY Qatar 87¢ $87 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $25 2d
Will Arman Tsarukyan be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2 SELL No 98¢ $13 3d
Will Arman Tsarukyan be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2 SELL No 98¢ $6 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $26 3d
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 43¢ $22 3d
Will Arman Tsarukyan be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2 SELL No 100¢ $81 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 51¢ $50 3d
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 43¢ $44 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $52 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $52 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $36 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $9 3d
Will Sam Burns finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL Yes 69¢ $1 3d
Will Sam Burns finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL Yes 69¢ $7 3d
Will Sam Burns finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL Yes 69¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,155.42 · official $3,155.24 (match) · 3500 history records