Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5964…207d other 132 markets active 3h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$33 (-0%) realized −$32 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%26W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$10
politics 29% −$20
sports 14% −$8
crypto 9% −$1
economics 7% +$4
culture 4% $0
world 4% −$6
tech 2% −$2
finance 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.3% -9.3% 38% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 47 -0.5% -10.0% 6% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 100 -0.4% -9.9% 15% 0% -9.8%
all 131 -0.3% -9.8% 20% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$32
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses26 / 105
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)131 / 132
History coverage109d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? No 94¢ 92¢ $59 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $60 $0 +1%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $90 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 22, 2026? Jun 19 $61 −$3 -6%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $226 −$1 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $61 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $49 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 18 $42 +$4 +8%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 07 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $51 −$1 -2%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 06 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $105 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $60 $0 -1%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $209 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 05 $38 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 04 $103 −$1 -1%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $121 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $37 $0 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 03 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $119 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 02 $40 −$1 -3%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? Jun 02 $68 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $105 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $94 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $58 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $51 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $58 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $366 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $91 −$1 -1%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $82 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $45 $0 -1%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $166 −$2 -1%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $41 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 29 $117 −$1 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 28 $204 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $598 −$1 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $208 −$2 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $203 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 23 $52 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $50 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $218 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $40 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 22 $49 $0 -1%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 21 $112 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $46 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $212 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham BUY No 94¢ $60 3h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $60 4h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $60 11h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $44 11h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $44 19h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $58 20h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $61 24h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $64 24h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $64 30h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $61 31h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $61 37h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $47 38h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $47 46h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $49 46h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY No 92¢ $42 12d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 95¢ $50 13d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 95¢ $50 13d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $52 13d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $52 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $50 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $51 13d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $60 13d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $60 14d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 93¢ $45 14d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 94¢ $45 14d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $53 14d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 97¢ $53 14d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $60 14d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $60 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.51 · official $58.51 (match) · 478 history records