Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:20:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
59 0x5966…af5d sports 594 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 94d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$27,491 (+14%) realized +$27,499 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate59%351W / 240L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$337per market
Trades / day29.3pace
Fees−$2,529est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$463now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,334
7 days+$3,342
14 days+$8,857
30 days+$11,658
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$24,186
other 1% +$2,494
crypto 1% −$716
world 0% +$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +23.1% +11.3% 68% 64% +20.9%
≤30d 164 +6.3% -3.8% 56% 52% +7.6%
≤90d 575 +6.0% -4.1% 58% 53% +1.2%
all 591 +8.0% -2.3% 59% 54% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.3% 54% +2.3%
10% ← realistic here -11.6% 49% -7.5%
15% -20.2% 45% -16.4%
20% -28.0% 44% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$287 vs −$312 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$463
Realized+$27,499
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses351 / 240
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$2,529
Open positions3
Markets (closed)591 / 594
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$337
Trades / day29.3
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 591 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Over 52¢ 52¢ $350 $347 −$3 (-1%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner T1 88¢ 87¢ $101 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 121 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $114 +$86 +75%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 21 $350 +$275 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $47 +$33 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$8 +152%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $352 +$350 +100%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 20 $336 +$93 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $115 +$91 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$10 +40%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $351 −$350 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $93 +$7 +7%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-5.5) Jun 20 $350 −$350 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $127 +$128 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +53%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $356 +$318 +90%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $350 +$337 +96%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $350 +$275 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $59 +$41 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $350 +$395 +113%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $769 +$86 +11%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $351 −$350 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $397 +$603 +152%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $380 −$260 -68%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) Jun 18 $350 +$395 +113%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) Jun 18 $350 +$379 +108%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $356 +$405 +114%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $354 +$346 +98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $350 +$365 +104%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $351 −$351 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $351 +$71 +20%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $95 +$5 +5%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $350 +$324 +92%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $178 +$22 +12%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $356 +$405 +114%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $350 −$350 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $350 −$350 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $355 +$345 +97%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $3 +$2 +61%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,487 +$913 +61%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $351 −$350 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $353 −$349 -99%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 12 $103 +$278 +270%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 52¢ $175 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 52¢ $178 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 3h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 57¢ $0 3h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 57¢ $114 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $80 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $17 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 6h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL No 39¢ $174 14h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL No 39¢ $30 14h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL No 39¢ $100 14h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL No 39¢ $18 14h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL No 39¢ $50 14h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL No 39¢ $6 15h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL No 39¢ $51 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $110 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 16h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 17h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 51¢ $140 17h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 56¢ $30 17h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 56¢ $186 17h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 56¢ $134 17h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 17h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 17h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 49¢ $19 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $463.27 · official $463.27 (match) · 3500 history records