Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:40:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5968…96f0 sports 975 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,512 (-4%) realized −$3,563 · open +$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate59%569W / 390L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$475est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$2,127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$92
7 days−$776
14 days−$984
30 days−$3,361
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$583
other 27% −$956
crypto 4% −$1,042
world 3% −$1,622
tech 0% +$42
economics 0% +$5
finance 0% +$13
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -6.5% -15.4% 44% 41% -19.9%
≤30d 160 -4.5% -13.6% 54% 48% -23.1%
≤90d 751 -3.2% -12.4% 59% 52% -16.6%
all 959 -3.0% -12.3% 59% 53% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 53% -14.5%
10% -20.7% 41% -22.6%
15% -28.3% 31% -30.1%
20% -35.3% 19% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$57 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$2,127
Realized−$3,563
Unrealized+$51
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses569 / 390
Est. fees paid−$475
Open positions15
Markets (closed)959 / 975
History coverage124d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 959 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $200 $300 +$100 (+50%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $200 $224 +$24 (+12%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $193 $202 +$9 (+5%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 95¢ $198 $197 −$1 (-0%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 90¢ $198 $190 −$7 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $200 $185 −$15 (-8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $200 $152 −$48 (-24%)
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Yes 76¢ 81¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $98 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 71¢ 70¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 56¢ 48¢ $98 $83 −$14 (-15%)
OKX IPO in 2026? No 84¢ 89¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $48 $44 −$4 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 217 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $200 +$69 +35%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $200 +$77 +38%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$59 +590%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $100 +$38 +38%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $200 +$121 +60%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $200 +$93 +46%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $300 +$42 +14%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$97 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $200 −$77 -39%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $300 +$190 +63%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $200 −$21 -10%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $200 −$196 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $200 −$195 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $400 +$229 +57%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $200 −$50 -25%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $200 −$176 -88%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $200 +$29 +15%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $100 −$1 -1%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $100 +$40 +40%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $200 −$195 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $200 +$233 +116%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $300 −$111 -37%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $200 +$111 +56%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $200 −$125 -62%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $100 −$97 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $100 +$9 +8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $200 −$197 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $200 −$196 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $150 −$48 -32%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 $0 +33%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $200 +$215 +108%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $200 −$195 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $400 −$252 -63%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $200 +$84 +42%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $11 −$11 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $1,062 −$27 -2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $201 −$56 -28%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $100 −$81 -81%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 09 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Fiji win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Vanuatu win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $50 −$24 -48%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $70 +$10 +15%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $300 −$48 -16%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $50 −$49 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $352 +$29 +8%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $20 −$10 -48%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $50 +$18 +36%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $400 −$106 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $100 51m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $100 51m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $100 51m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $100 52m
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 25¢ $138 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 8h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $200 30h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 61¢ $200 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $200 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $200 30h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $100 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $123 38h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 48¢ $200 41h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 74¢ $179 41h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 51¢ $84 41h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $200 44h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $200 44h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $200 44h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 80¢ $200 44h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 58¢ $100 44h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $100 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $150 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 9¢ $24 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 56¢ $99 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $100 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $200 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $200 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $200 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,126.76 · official $2,126.79 (match) · 2225 history records