Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:36:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5969…facf crypto 1676 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate81%1353W / 322L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day33.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$21
14 days+$15
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 555 +3.5% -6.4% 74% 52% -6.3%
≤30d 1125 +0.7% -8.9% 78% 43% -9.1%
≤90d 1675 -0.7% -10.2% 81% 36% -10.8%
all 1675 -0.7% -10.2% 81% 36% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 36% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 24% -19.3%
15% -26.6% 16% -27.1%
20% -33.8% 11% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses1353 / 322
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1675 / 1676
History coverage52d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day33.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1675 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Up 77¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+29%)
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +44%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +114%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +129%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -39%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 13m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 28m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 33m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 41m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 43m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 52m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 55m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 57m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 58m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.80 · official $1.77 (match) · 3500 history records