Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:44:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

59
0x5969…5bed
weather · 255 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2,510 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$18,633 · open −$7,793
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15,164
Realized+$18,633
Unrealized−$7,793
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses219 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$137
Open positions5
Markets (closed)250 / 255
History coverage92d
Avg bet$3,355
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 5 History 250 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$46
14 days−$475
30 days+$15,382
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 63¢ 42¢ $20,764 $13,893 −$6,871 (-33%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 39¢ 22¢ $2,191 $1,269 −$922 (-42%)
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? No 87¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No 58¢ 76¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Ben-Gvir out as Israeli Minister of National Security by June 30? No 88¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? No 73¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 98¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May? No 29¢ 0¢ $351 $0 −$351 (-100%)
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Villarreal CF vs. Levante UD: O/U 4.5 Under 91¢ 0¢ $10,544 $0 −$10,544 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in May? Jun 06 $860 +$46 +5%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Jun 06 $8 $0 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 01 $4,618 −$8 -0%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? Jun 01 $3,044 −$563 -18%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $50 +$50 +100%
UEFA Champions League: Unbeaten Champion May 30 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 26 $98 +$532 +541%
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $161 +$51 +31%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 16 $31,624 +$15,627 +49%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May? May 15 $351 −$351 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $3,380 +$1,089 +32%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $5,834 +$2,030 +35%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 06 $7,082 +$14 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $10,791 +$709 +7%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 02 $2 +$1 +67%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 4.5 May 02 $471 +$161 +34%
Villarreal CF vs. Levante UD: O/U 4.5 May 02 $10,564 −$10,544 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $1,226 +$26 +2%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $1,568 +$66 +4%
RC Deportivo La Coruña vs. CD Leganés: O/U 3.5 May 01 $41 +$8 +18%
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30? May 01 $224 +$4 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by April 30, 2026? May 01 $20 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by April 30, 2026? May 01 $2,962 +$333 +11%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Alex Jones by April 30, 2026? May 01 $99 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $381 +$124 +33%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? May 01 $15,599 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Megyn Kelly by April 30, 2026? May 01 $102 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by April 30, 2026? May 01 $18 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by April 30, 2026? May 01 $12 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by April 30, May 01 $97 +$4 +4%
Exact Score: SC Braga 0 - 0 SC Freiburg? Apr 30 $983 +$83 +8%
Exact Score: Nottingham Forest FC 0 - 0 Aston Villa FC? Apr 30 $103 +$27 +26%
Will Apple (AAPL) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 30 $400 +$38 +9%
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 0 - 0 Arsenal FC? Apr 30 $1,080 +$120 +11%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $212 +$110 +52%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $918 +$232 +25%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $34 −$34 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Apr 28 $654 +$47 +7%
Will Trump say "King" during King Charles visit? Apr 28 $20 +$1 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 28 $21,860 −$3,957 -18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 27 $213 +$13 +6%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Apr 27 $1,744 +$30 +2%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $3,793 +$70 +2%
Kash Patel out by April 30? Apr 27 $242 +$6 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $37,384 −$12,892 -34%
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $20 $0 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 26 $4 −$4 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Apr 26 $29,179 −$162 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $66,030 +$2,532 +4%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 25 $9,386 +$330 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 48% +$11,008
weather 22% +$162
sports 16% −$11,165
other 12% +$12,654
politics 1% +$80
economics 1% +$59
finance 1% −$1,850
tech 0% +$4
crypto 0% −$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $203 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $20 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $125 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $41 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $3 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $7 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $7 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $2 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $9 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $7 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $3 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $5 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $4 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $9 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $23 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $10 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $3 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $154 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $1,005 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $3,892 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $7,383 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $1,327 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $2,365 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $211 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $3 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $4,229 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $38 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $76 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $76 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $38 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.9% -7.8% 50% 0% -4.7%
≤30d 10 +60.8% +45.5% 60% 40% +24.6%
≤90d 250 +0.1% -9.4% 88% 13% -7.4%
all 250 +0.1% -9.4% 88% 13% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 13% -7.4%
10% -18.1% 7% -16.3%
15% ← realistic here -26.0% 4% -24.3%
20% -33.3% 3% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,164.14 · official $15,162.17 (match) · 3500 history records