Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:21:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x596b…21e5 crypto 64 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$21,916 (+162%) realized +$267 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate59%41W / 28L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day3437.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$267
7 days+$267
14 days+$267
30 days+$267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$309
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -7.0% -15.8% 59% 4% -7.7%
≤30d 69 -7.0% -15.8% 59% 4% -7.7%
≤90d 69 -7.0% -15.8% 59% 4% -7.7%
all 69 -7.0% -15.8% 59% 4% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3437.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 4% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 3% -16.5%
15% -31.2% 1% -24.6%
20% -38.0% 0% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
53.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.43 per $1 lost it wins $2.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$267
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses41 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 64
History coverage1d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day3437.0
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 54¢ 52¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 42¢ 48¢ $26 $29 +$3 (+12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$9 -256%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $228 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $382 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $254 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $458 +$55 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $480 +$17 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $490 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $393 +$13 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $196 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $317 −$6 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $277 −$7 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $323 +$11 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $285 +$14 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $66 −$6 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $160 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $189 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $257 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $197 −$8 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $244 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $252 +$17 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $237 +$13 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $207 −$13 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $109 −$12 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $125 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $57 −$7 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $128 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $185 +$14 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $139 +$11 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $125 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $117 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $240 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $155 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $80 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $114 −$6 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $156 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $331 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $95 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $167 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $86 −$10 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $140 +$14 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $278 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $344 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $155 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $272 −$22 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $179 +$10 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $12 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $9 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $9 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $19 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $18 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 1m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.78 · official $60.82 (match) · 3500 history records