Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:41:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
59 0x5970…11f2 other 10 markets active 12h ago coverage 19d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$93 (+35%) realized +$91 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +37% what you keep after slip
Net edge+37%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%5W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$88
14 days+$88
30 days+$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$90
crypto 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+37.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +51.8% +37.3% 100% 100% +35.5%
≤30d 5 +51.8% +37.3% 100% 100% +35.5%
≤90d 5 +51.8% +37.3% 100% 100% +35.5%
all 5 +51.8% +37.3% 100% 100% +35.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.3% 100% +35.5%
10% +24.2% 100% +22.5%
15% +12.2% 100% +10.7%
20% +1.2% 40% -0.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized+$91
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses5 / 0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)5 / 10
History coverage19d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 66¢ $25 $22 −$2 (-9%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $19 $22 +$3 (+15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $20 +$8 +42%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $25 +$16 +62%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$47 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $25 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 22h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 23h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $148 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.53 · official $90.53 (match) · 35 history records