Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:28:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
59 0x5970…b570 other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$74 (-3%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate59%10W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$138
7 days+$57
14 days+$58
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$44
politics 26% −$254
sports 9% +$264
world 9% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +8.2% -2.1% 57% 43% -6.3%
≤30d 11 +0.4% -9.2% 55% 27% -10.4%
≤90d 13 +4.4% -5.5% 62% 31% -9.7%
all 17 -2.7% -12.0% 59% 24% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 24% -10.8%
10% -20.4% 24% -19.3%
15% -28.1% 12% -27.1%
20% -35.1% 6% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$65 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses10 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage148d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $308 +$77 +25%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $178 +$61 +34%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $215 −$157 -73%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $315 −$64 -20%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $204 +$264 +129%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $328 −$124 -38%
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? Jun 20 $53 $0 +0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 10 $69 +$1 +1%
Will Claudia López win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidentia May 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 26 $126 −$32 -25%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 26 $152 −$45 -30%
US strike on Colombia by March 31? Apr 02 $120 +$7 +6%
Will PLC win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Represent Apr 01 $19 +$9 +48%
US government shutdown Saturday? Mar 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 05 $151 +$1 +1%
US strike on Colombia by January 31? Feb 02 $60 $0 +0%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31? Jan 27 $20 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 83¢ $385 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $90 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $121 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $98 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $100 31h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $78 47h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $41 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes $36 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes $37 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes $35 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes $26 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $16 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 57¢ $251 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $102 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 22¢ $52 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $102 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $112 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $56 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 49¢ $23 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $108 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 50¢ $23 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $40 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 56¢ $158 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $53 3d
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $53 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $275 3d
Will Claudia López win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidentia SELL No 100¢ $4 24d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid SELL Yes 66¢ $94 29d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian SELL No 65¢ $107 29d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid BUY Yes 87¢ $126 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records