Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:41:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5974…83e6 crypto 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$239 (-16%) realized −$225 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$541now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$570
other 4% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-50.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -44.9% -50.1% 27% 27% -61.3%
≤30d 11 -44.9% -50.1% 27% 27% -61.3%
≤90d 11 -44.9% -50.1% 27% 27% -61.3%
all 11 -44.9% -50.1% 27% 27% -61.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.1% 27% -61.3%
10% -54.9% 27% -65.0%
15% -59.3% 27% -68.4%
20% -63.3% 27% -71.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$88 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$541
Realized−$225
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $555 $541 −$14 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $225 −$210 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $27 −$25 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $216 −$216 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $16 +$9 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 20 $101 −$82 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $98 +$135 +138%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $53 +$49 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $11 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $574 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $225 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $19 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $101 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $22 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $108 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $108 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $233 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $98 4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $102 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $49 9h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $53 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $38 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $8 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $50 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $540.55 · official $540.65 (match) · 24 history records