Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:09:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5976…b01d world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate45%15W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$2
other 29% $0
weather 5% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 2% $0
politics 2% +$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 14% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 15 -5.8% -14.8% 20% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 15 -5.8% -14.8% 20% 0% -9.9%
all 33 -8.2% -16.9% 45% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -24.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -32.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -38.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses15 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage475d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $41 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $2 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $45 $0 -0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $75 +$2 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 20 $36 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $23 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $7 −$1 -11%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $36 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $55 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $37 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $77 −$2 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $38 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Dec 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100K and $102K on June 27? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Mar 31 $17 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 31 $17 $0 -0%
Trump meets with Carney in March? Mar 30 $17 +$1 +3%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 27 $18 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 46°F or below on March 24? Mar 25 $18 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $17 $0 +1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 14-21? Mar 17 $17 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $17 $0 +3%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20-1.24ºC in February 20 Mar 12 $17 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 65¢ $41 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $41 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 35h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $11 47h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $27 47h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 45¢ $35 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 46¢ $8 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 46¢ $7 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 46¢ $23 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $39 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $36 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $36 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $23 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $12 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $36 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $40 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $40 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 100 history records