Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:38:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
59 0x5978…a870 weather 347 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,024 (+7%) realized +$3,023 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate85%294W / 52L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,978
7 days+$1,926
14 days+$1,927
30 days+$2,091
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$1,038
sports 0% +$1,928
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)+9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +100.5% +81.4% 35% 33% +86.2%
≤30d 162 +43.6% +29.9% 71% 18% -6.4%
≤90d 346 +21.5% +9.9% 85% 10% -7.1%
all 346 +21.5% +9.9% 85% 10% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.9% 10% -7.1%
10% -0.6% 6% -16.0%
15% -10.2% 5% -24.1%
20% -19.0% 5% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +41% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$3 · ×3.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×22.05 per $1 lost it wins $22.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$3,023
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses294 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)346 / 347
History coverage72d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 346 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $2 +$1,754 +81735%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $6 +$144 +2575%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2 +$21 +998%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +47%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -70%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 +$1 +23%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $4 +$62 +1569%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1 $0 +10%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 +$14 +1095%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$6 +303%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 +7%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 +10%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $3 +$33 +1051%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -76%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2 −$1 -29%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 +$1 +25%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$4 +193%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8m
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,756 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 0¢ $1 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 0¢ $1 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 0¢ $0 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $51 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 80¢ $28 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 70¢ $20 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 60¢ $13 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 90¢ $32 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $20 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 8¢ $0 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 0¢ $2 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 0¢ $0 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 1¢ $0 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 1¢ $0 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 0¢ $0 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 1¢ $0 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 1¢ $0 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 16¢ $1 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 4¢ $6 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 11¢ $2 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 0¢ $1 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 4¢ $1 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 1¢ $1 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 1¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.00 · official $13.00 · 1387 history records