Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:31:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
59 0x5979…7fbd world 49 markets active 7h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,636 (+13%) realized +$1,617 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate60%29W / 19L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$262per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$281now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$447
14 days+$1,035
30 days+$1,609
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% +$1,442
other 10% +$315
finance 8% −$117
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +3.8% -6.0% 57% 26% -3.5%
≤30d 43 +6.5% -3.6% 63% 37% +3.1%
≤90d 48 +4.8% -5.1% 60% 35% +3.1%
all 48 +4.8% -5.1% 60% 35% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 35% +3.1%
10% -14.2% 27% -6.8%
15% -22.5% 21% -15.8%
20% -30.1% 6% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$25 · ×2.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.54 per $1 lost it wins $4.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$281
Realized+$1,617
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses29 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage34d
Avg bet$262
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 55¢ 58¢ $262 $281 +$19 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $89 +$9 +10%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $118 −$2 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 15 $24 −$9 -39%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 14 $9 $0 +3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 14 $563 −$81 -14%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $7 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $552 −$14 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $502 +$15 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 14 $256 +$16 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $812 +$192 +24%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 14 $358 +$34 +10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 13 $1,358 +$42 +3%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 13 $378 −$52 -14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $350 +$153 +44%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 13 $427 −$102 -24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $290 +$119 +41%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $98 +$12 +12%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 12 $12 −$1 -12%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -34%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 12 $162 +$98 +61%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Jun 11 $171 −$12 -7%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $34 +$2 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $163 +$29 +18%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $30 $0 -0%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $371 +$126 +34%
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Jun 09 $6 +$1 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $351 +$153 +44%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $618 +$281 +46%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $738 +$145 +20%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 07 $1,026 −$110 -11%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? Jun 06 $114 −$1 -1%
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Jun 04 $31 +$1 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 03 $204 −$7 -3%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? May 31 $76 +$10 +12%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? May 29 $6 $0 +5%
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? May 29 $280 +$112 +40%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $279 +$209 +75%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 27 $284 −$47 -17%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $647 +$250 +39%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? May 25 $136 +$34 +25%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 24 $22 +$2 +9%
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? May 21 $20 +$9 +45%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 16 $10 $0 +1%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $23 +$12 +53%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? May 15 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6AM ET May 13 $14 −$10 -72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $25 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $25 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 53¢ $212 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $518 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $147 22h
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $98 28h
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 71¢ $0 28h
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 71¢ $43 28h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $116 28h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 60¢ $60 31h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL No 18¢ $9 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $39 31h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $58 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $49 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $147 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $147 31h
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 67¢ $46 31h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 45h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 33¢ $2 47h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 33¢ $15 47h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL No 32¢ $6 47h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL No 66¢ $225 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 36¢ $7 2d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $268 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $164 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $272 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $322 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 80¢ $393 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $280.84 · official $280.84 (match) · 423 history records