Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:53:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x597b…9ea8 crypto 190 markets active 1h ago coverage 362d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$425 (-10%) realized −$404 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%45W / 143L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$84
7 days+$41
14 days−$250
30 days+$294
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$830
politics 11% +$34
world 6% +$236
sports 4% −$104
other 3% +$103
finance 1% −$2
weather 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-34.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -20.3% -27.9% 20% 20% +0.8%
≤30d 40 -35.2% -41.4% 18% 18% +14.5%
≤90d 134 -80.2% -82.1% 5% 5% -40.7%
all 188 -27.4% -34.3% 24% 24% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.3% 24% -21.6%
10% -40.6% 23% -29.1%
15% -46.3% 23% -35.9%
20% -51.6% 22% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -72% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$18 · ×2.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

362d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$404
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses45 / 143
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)188 / 190
History coverage362d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $54 $37 −$17 (-31%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $24 $20 −$4 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $61 −$12 -20%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $31 −$31 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $27 −$14 -53%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 ( Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 12? Jun 18 $35 +$64 +186%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $26 +$176 +685%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $9 +$8 +90%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $15 −$14 -95%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Kim Tae-heum win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial e Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 18? Jun 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election by between 10% Jun 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Kim Doo-kyum win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 06 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Kim Tae-heum win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial e Jun 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Yang Hyang-ja win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Kim Young-hwan win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial Jun 06 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Kim Jin-tae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Jun 06 $63 −$63 -100%
Will the People Power Party win 5 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%? Jun 04 $22 −$22 -99%
Will voter turnout be between 60% and 65% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral el Jun 04 $12 −$11 -90%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $40 +$160 +400%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 04 $136 +$364 +267%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $247 +$53 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on January 30 May 18 $44 −$36 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 22¢ $22 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 25¢ $49 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 21¢ $21 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 41¢ $51 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 13¢ $13 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $27 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $40 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 40h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 41h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $11 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $54 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.50 · official $56.50 (match) · 750 history records