Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:04:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
59 0x597c…f2f0 other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+0%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%39W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$6
crypto 24% +$1
politics 13% +$4
tech 12% +$1
economics 5% $0
finance 3% $0
world 3% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 9 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 39 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.2%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses39 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage236d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $130 $130 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will XRP dip to $0.60 June 15-21? Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 15 above $120? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 June 8-14? Jun 16 $130 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 09 $129 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 18 $128 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? May 08 $128 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 22 $128 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 15 $127 +$1 +1%
Will NVIDIA reach $280 in March? Apr 02 $89 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA dip to $116 in March? Mar 24 $126 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 March 9-15? Mar 18 $126 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 11 $365 +$3 +1%
Will Netflix dip to $35 in February? Mar 01 $124 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the w Feb 24 $123 $0 +0%
Will Netflix dip to $35 in January? Feb 01 $122 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on January 13? Jan 16 $121 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on January 9? Jan 13 $121 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 08 $118 +$3 +2%
Will Microsoft dip to $390 in December? Jan 04 $15 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft reach $563 in December? Jan 04 $15 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft reach $630 in December? Jan 04 $39 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft dip to $323 in December? Jan 04 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 27 $118 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025? Dec 22 $88 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 15 $69 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Dec 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? Dec 09 $30 $0 +0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? Dec 07 $8 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025? Dec 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 07 $29 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in November 2025? Dec 02 $111 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 20 $110 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 12 $106 $0 +0%
Will Dave’s Hot Chicken be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on No Nov 08 $116 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek V3.1 Chat lose the NOF1.ai competition? Nov 06 $108 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $130 1h
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 15 above $120? BUY No 100¢ $30 9d
Will XRP dip to $0.60 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $100 9d
Will Solana dip to $20 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $130 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $130 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $129 35d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $87 37d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $10 37d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $31 37d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $53 47d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $75 47d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? BUY No 100¢ $128 62d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $128 63d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $128 70d
Trump out as President by April 30? SELL No 99¢ $128 70d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $127 84d
Will NVIDIA dip to $116 in March? SELL No 100¢ $38 93d
Will NVIDIA reach $280 in March? BUY No 100¢ $89 93d
Will NVIDIA dip to $116 in March? SELL No 100¢ $89 93d
Will NVIDIA dip to $116 in March? BUY No 99¢ $15 97d
Will NVIDIA dip to $116 in March? BUY No 99¢ $111 97d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 March 9-15? BUY No 100¢ $126 105d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL No 99¢ $26 105d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL No 99¢ $100 105d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 97¢ $124 115d
Will Netflix dip to $35 in February? BUY No 100¢ $108 120d
Will Netflix dip to $35 in February? BUY No 100¢ $16 120d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$0 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 100¢ $123 127d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL No 97¢ $14 127d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL No 97¢ $2 127d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.54 · official $129.54 (match) · 144 history records