Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:51:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5981…3934 sports 659 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$476 (-1%) realized −$370 · open −$106
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%253W / 403L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day27.2pace
Fees−$598est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$611
14 days−$1,135
30 days−$1,098
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$1,774
other 22% +$263
world 1% −$142
crypto 0% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -20.5% -28.1% 30% 28% -18.3%
≤30d 375 -5.3% -14.3% 38% 35% -13.2%
≤90d 656 -4.3% -13.4% 39% 36% -13.0%
all 656 -4.3% -13.4% 39% 36% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 36% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 35% -21.4%
15% -29.3% 32% -29.0%
20% -36.2% 28% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$26 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$370
Unrealized−$106
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses253 / 403
Est. fees paid−$598
Open positions3
Markets (closed)656 / 659
History coverage51d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day27.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 656 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $19 $14 −$6 (-29%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-16%)
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Spirit Academy 56¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 166 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $184 +$4 +2%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $50 −$49 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $24 +$37 +152%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $104 −$24 -23%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $80 +$43 +53%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $269 −$5 -2%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $53 +$12 +23%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $55 +$48 +88%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $79 +$26 +33%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $134 −$55 -41%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $50 −$46 -91%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $80 +$50 +62%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -96%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $63 −$3 -5%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $25 −$24 -97%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $26 +$8 +29%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 17 $35 −$4 -10%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $155 +$153 +99%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 16 $152 +$2 +2%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $43 −$42 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $231 −$147 -64%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $273 −$25 -9%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $27 −$26 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $15 −$8 -51%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $60 −$19 -32%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $37 +$57 +155%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $93 +$56 +60%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $209 −$123 -59%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $84 +$125 +149%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $170 −$166 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $282 −$59 -21%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $91 −$2 -2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $111 −$13 -11%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $118 −$48 -40%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $17 −$1 -7%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $145 −$28 -19%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $20 −$3 -14%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $19 −$18 -96%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $80 −$25 -31%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $16 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $15 −$14 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $80 −$14 -17%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $55 +$47 +86%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $38 −$37 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $54 +$35 +64%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $73 −$14 -20%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $55 −$22 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $135 35m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $84 1h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Spirit Academy 56¢ $101 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 37¢ $8 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 36¢ $44 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 66¢ $100 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $50 14h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 14h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 92¢ $61 14h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $24 16h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $64 17h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $24 17h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 11¢ $16 17h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 86¢ $123 17h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $80 17h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $80 19h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 85¢ $110 19h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $66 21h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 51¢ $116 21h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $158 21h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 39¢ $37 21h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $45 22h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Yakult Brothers 77¢ $65 25h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 60¢ $53 25h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $55 36h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 89¢ $105 37h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 65¢ $79 38h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 42¢ $79 38h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $134 39h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 6¢ $4 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.42 · official $23.42 (match) · 1418 history records