Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:41:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5993…470d sports 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$288 (-8%) realized −$263 · open −$25
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate65%31W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$278
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$133
other 43% −$225
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 19 -40.4% -46.0% 42% 32% -42.5%
≤90d 19 -40.4% -46.0% 42% 32% -42.5%
all 48 -13.9% -22.1% 65% 52% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 52% -17.9%
10% -29.6% 29% -25.8%
15% -36.4% 15% -33.0%
20% -42.6% 10% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$51 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$263
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses31 / 17
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage176d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 54¢ 18¢ $38 $13 −$25 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan vs. Iceland end in a draw? May 31 $26 −$26 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) May 31 $106 −$80 -76%
Will Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Yokohama F·Marinos end in a draw? May 31 $79 +$27 +34%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $69 +$10 +14%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $70 +$4 +6%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $48 +$22 +46%
Molde FK leading at halftime? May 30 $40 +$7 +18%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) May 30 $21 +$19 +90%
Kashiwa Reysol leading at halftime? May 30 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-08? May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Lakers vs. Kings May 30 $74 −$74 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-8.5) May 30 $153 −$153 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Vissel Kōbe vs. Kashima Antlers: Both Teams to Score May 30 $10 −$9 -90%
South Africa vs. Nicaragua: Draw at halftime? May 29 $10 +$8 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score Jan 08 $21 −$16 -78%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-08? Jan 08 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $396 −$376 -95%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $352 +$44 +12%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 04 $287 +$65 +23%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5 Jan 03 $253 +$34 +14%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) Jan 03 $217 +$36 +17%
Melbourne City FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 1.5 Jan 03 $191 +$26 +14%
Solana Up or Down - January 2, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jan 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Cagliari Calcio vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5 Jan 03 $162 +$29 +18%
Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club win on 2026-01-02? Jan 02 $150 +$22 +15%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jan 02 $105 +$45 +43%
Solana Up or Down - January 2, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jan 02 $80 +$25 +31%
Oregon vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Jan 01 $74 +$6 +8%
Magic vs. Pacers Jan 01 $63 +$11 +18%
Gabon vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Dec 31 $53 +$9 +18%
Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 3.5 Dec 31 $50 +$3 +6%
Pistons vs. Lakers Dec 31 $37 +$13 +35%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw Dec 31 $23 +$14 +59%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 30 $45 −$22 -48%
Will FC Porto win on 2025-12-27? Dec 29 $35 +$10 +27%
Will AS Roma win on 2025-12-29? Dec 29 $30 +$5 +17%
Solana Up or Down - December 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Dec 29 $7 +$1 +10%
Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC end in a draw? Dec 29 $24 −$24 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $18 +$6 +34%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $9 +$8 +92%
Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score Dec 26 $53 −$43 -82%
Will Coventry City FC win on 2025-12-26? Dec 26 $33 +$20 +61%
Will Cameroon win on 2025-12-24? Dec 26 $10 +$3 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $39 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 38¢ $5 2h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Qatar 40¢ $5 2h
Will Japan vs. Iceland end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $26 18d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 13¢ $26 18d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 51¢ $106 18d
Will Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Yokohama F·Marinos end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $106 18d
Will Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Yokohama F·Marinos end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $79 18d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 100¢ $79 19d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 87¢ $69 19d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 19d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $74 19d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 94¢ $70 19d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $70 19d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $48 19d
Molde FK leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 19d
Molde FK leading at halftime? BUY Yes 84¢ $40 19d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) SELL Scotland 100¢ $41 19d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 52¢ $21 19d
Kashiwa Reysol leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 19d
Kashiwa Reysol leading at halftime? BUY Yes 92¢ $20 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 19d
Vissel Kōbe vs. Kashima Antlers: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes $1 19d
Vissel Kōbe vs. Kashima Antlers: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $10 19d
South Africa vs. Nicaragua: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 20d
South Africa vs. Nicaragua: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 20d
Lakers vs. Kings BUY Lakers 50¢ $74 156d
Spread: Lakers (-8.5) BUY Lakers 67¢ $153 156d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.04 · official $13.04 (match) · 104 history records