Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:20:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
59 0x5993…b42b sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 166d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$122 (+0%) realized +$122 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate62%16W / 10L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,079per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 166d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$3,758
other 49% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -15.3% -23.4% 80% 0% -25.7%
≤30d 5 -15.3% -23.4% 80% 0% -25.7%
≤90d 5 -15.3% -23.4% 80% 0% -25.7%
all 26 -9.2% -17.9% 62% 23% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 23% -20.6%
10% -25.7% 15% -28.2%
15% -32.9% 4% -35.2%
20% -39.5% 4% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% too few recent
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$1,253) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$526 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$122
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses16 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage166d
Avg bet$1,079
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $3,581 −$3,568 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3,306 +$205 +6%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $3,205 +$154 +5%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3,006 +$195 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2,805 +$171 +6%
Spurs vs. Rockets Jan 21 $406 −$399 -98%
Celtics vs. Pistons Jan 20 $305 +$101 +33%
Counter-Strike: Players vs TEAM ORUGA (BO3) - CCT South America Series Jan 19 $605 −$299 -50%
Wizards vs. Nuggets Jan 18 $1,006 +$83 +8%
Lakers vs. Trail Blazers Jan 18 $484 −$13 -3%
Suns vs. Knicks Jan 18 $1,147 −$27 -2%
Celtics vs. Hawks Jan 18 $520 +$41 +8%
Clippers vs. Raptors Jan 17 $645 +$206 +32%
Cavaliers vs. 76ers Jan 17 $513 −$199 -39%
Pelicans vs. Pacers Jan 17 $582 −$69 -12%
Knicks vs. Kings Jan 15 $837 +$82 +10%
Nuggets vs. Mavericks Jan 15 $776 +$61 +8%
Nets vs. Pelicans Jan 15 $1,506 −$9 -1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Monte (BO3) Jan 14 $646 +$139 +22%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs HOTU (BO3) Jan 13 $669 +$101 +15%
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? Jan 13 $1,253 −$584 -47%
Chargers vs. Patriots Jan 12 $84 +$6 +7%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $70 +$4 +6%
Will Levante UD vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw? Jan 11 $5 +$3 +60%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Queens Park Rangers FC end in a draw? Jan 11 $4 +$1 +26%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $96 −$92 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 88¢ $3,581 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,511 32h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 94¢ $3,306 32h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,359 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 95¢ $3,205 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,201 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $3,006 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,976 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $2,805 3d
Spurs vs. Rockets SELL Spurs 8¢ $7 156d
Spurs vs. Rockets BUY Spurs 84¢ $406 156d
Celtics vs. Pistons SELL Pistons 100¢ $406 157d
Celtics vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 75¢ $305 157d
Counter-Strike: Players vs TEAM ORUGA (BO3) - CCT South America Series SELL TEAM ORUGA 48¢ $306 158d
Counter-Strike: Players vs TEAM ORUGA (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY TEAM ORUGA 91¢ $605 158d
Wizards vs. Nuggets SELL Nuggets 95¢ $605 159d
Wizards vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 74¢ $471 159d
Lakers vs. Trail Blazers SELL Trail Blazers 73¢ $471 159d
Lakers vs. Trail Blazers BUY Trail Blazers 75¢ $484 159d
Wizards vs. Nuggets SELL Wizards 53¢ $484 159d
Wizards vs. Nuggets BUY Wizards 59¢ $535 159d
Suns vs. Knicks SELL Suns 85¢ $535 159d
Suns vs. Knicks BUY Suns 93¢ $585 159d
Suns vs. Knicks SELL Suns 88¢ $284 159d
Suns vs. Knicks SELL Suns 89¢ $301 159d
Suns vs. Knicks BUY Suns 85¢ $562 159d
Celtics vs. Hawks SELL Celtics 97¢ $561 159d
Celtics vs. Hawks BUY Celtics 90¢ $520 159d
Clippers vs. Raptors SELL Clippers 84¢ $521 160d
Clippers vs. Raptors BUY Clippers 53¢ $330 160d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 65 history records