Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:58:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x5995…382d politics 161 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$524 (-0%) realized −$525 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate14%22W / 137L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,552per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$858now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$31
14 days−$174
30 days−$312
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$187
politics 36% −$111
sports 17% −$249
culture 4% −$8
world 2% −$5
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% +$2
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 52 -4.7% -13.8% 8% 4% -9.8%
≤90d 122 -9.3% -17.9% 7% 4% -10.0%
all 159 -2.4% -11.7% 14% 11% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 11% -9.7%
10% -20.2% 11% -18.4%
15% -27.9% 9% -26.3%
20% -35.0% 8% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,396) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$12 · ×4.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$858
Realized−$525
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses22 / 137
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)159 / 161
History coverage124d
Avg bet$1,552
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $702 $702 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $154 $156 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $858 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $935 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $2,271 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,029 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,127 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,230 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,396 −$4 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $4,329 −$6 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $3,210 −$4 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $3,045 −$5 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,242 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $1,124 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,495 −$3 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $3,040 −$4 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $2,645 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 09 $2,761 −$4 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $1,410 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,410 −$2 -0%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,035 −$2 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 05 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $2,366 −$3 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $1,230 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $2,457 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $3,796 −$5 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $49 +$66 +134%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,094 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St Jun 02 $59 −$59 -100%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $538 +$1 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $4,866 −$5 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $1,101 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $347 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $3,630 −$4 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $726 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $2,983 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $1,241 −$2 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $664 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $515 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,695 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $7,516 −$8 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $2,440 −$3 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 25 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $7,339 −$8 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $60 −$60 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 23 $41 +$53 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $702 1h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $857 17h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $858 18h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $934 20h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $935 21h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $999 21h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,000 24h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,028 2d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,029 2d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,125 2d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,127 2d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,228 2d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,230 3d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,230 3d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,232 3d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,231 3d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,233 4d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,237 4d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,239 4d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,237 5d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,239 5d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,139 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,141 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,240 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,242 7d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,123 7d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,124 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,243 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,245 7d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,244 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $857.87 · official $857.87 (match) · 555 history records