Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:42:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
59 0x5997…5448 sports 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist
Total PnL −$469 (-8%) realized −$305 · open −$164
Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +42% what you keep after slip
Net edge+42%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%17W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$577
14 days+$572
30 days+$791
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$488
other 38% +$980
politics 18% −$1,112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+42.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +36.6% +23.6% 33% 33% +51.2%
≤30d 34 +5.6% -4.5% 35% 35% +11.1%
≤90d 55 +60.0% +44.7% 31% 31% -0.5%
all 56 +57.1% +42.1% 30% 30% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +42.1% 30% -20.1%
10% +28.5% 30% -27.7%
15% +16.1% 29% -34.7%
20% +4.7% 29% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +57% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +100% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$185 vs −$92 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$236
Realized−$305
Unrealized−$164
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses17 / 39
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions3
Markets (closed)56 / 59
History coverage103d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $200 $184 −$16 (-8%)
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 14¢ $100 $51 −$49 (-49%)
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic Yibing Wu $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon WTA: Claire Liu vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $102 +$136 +134%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $205 +$798 +390%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Sara Bejlek Jun 24 $203 −$7 -3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $154 −$150 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -97%
Mallorca Championships: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 22 $51 +$17 +34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$80 +79%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$8 -8%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 17 $17 −$4 -24%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 17 $51 −$30 -58%
Will Emma Raducanu be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Figueira Da Foz: Manon Leonard vs Alina Charaeva Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $101 +$77 +76%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 11 $10 −$2 -22%
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 08 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $51 +$363 +708%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 03 $103 −$100 -97%
Birmingham: Tatjana Maria vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 03 $51 +$39 +76%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $102 −$100 -98%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 02 $101 +$95 +93%
Will Club Aurora win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $51 +$88 +172%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 01 $102 −$100 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $202 +$115 +57%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 01 $51 −$50 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $256 −$250 -98%
Will Slovakia vs. Malta end in a draw? Jun 01 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Malta win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -97%
Trabzonspor vs. Bahcesehir Koleji Jun 01 $10 +$10 +96%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $572 +$514 +90%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $51 −$50 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff May 28 $10 +$35 +344%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva May 28 $30 +$31 +101%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame May 28 $50 +$131 +262%
Roland Garros WTA: Kimberly Birrell vs Jessica Pegula May 28 $10 +$210 +2040%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $10 +$406 +3948%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $77 −$75 -97%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $103 −$100 -97%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? May 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier May 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: James Duckworth vs Rafael Jodar May 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev May 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $205 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Claire Liu vs Hanne Vandewinkel BUY Hanne Vandewinkel 42¢ $102 9h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic BUY Yibing Wu $103 11h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Sara Bejlek BUY Zeynep Sonmez 51¢ $203 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 6d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $51 7d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 8d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 8d
Mallorca Championships: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 37¢ $51 9d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 53¢ $93 11d
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 12d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 12d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes $22 12d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 12d
Will Emma Raducanu be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes $10 13d
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets BUY McCartney Kessler 54¢ $101 14d
Figueira Da Foz: Manon Leonard vs Alina Charaeva BUY Manon Leonard 18¢ $10 15d
Figueira Da Foz: Manon Leonard vs Alina Charaeva BUY Manon Leonard 18¢ $10 15d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 15d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 18d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 18d
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter BUY Katie Boulter 56¢ $101 20d
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Katie Volynets 65¢ $101 21d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 22d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 22d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $17 22d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 26d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes $51 26d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 50¢ $102 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $235.51 · official $235.52 (match) · 91 history records