Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:39:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
59 0x5998…f89c sports 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 373d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$347 (+5%) realized −$72 · open +$419
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%62W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1,382now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$548
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$270
other 36% +$142
politics 2% +$75
tech 1% −$4
finance 1% −$30
economics 1% −$50
world 1% +$21
crypto 1% −$18
culture 1% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +4.6% -5.3% 33% 33% -14.5%
≤30d 8 -20.0% -27.6% 25% 25% -59.8%
≤90d 44 -1.6% -11.0% 45% 45% -5.0%
all 128 +11.2% +0.6% 48% 48% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 48% -9.5%
10% -9.0% 43% -18.2%
15% -17.8% 36% -26.1%
20% -25.9% 31% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$41 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

373d coverage
Net worth$1,382
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$419
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses62 / 66
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions2
Markets (closed)128 / 130
History coverage373d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 21¢ $507 $747 +$240 (+47%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $456 $635 +$179 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $151 −$6 -4%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $51 +$30 +60%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $97 −$40 -42%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $142 −$140 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $25 +$40 +158%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $288 −$288 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $134 −$44 -32%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $404 +$184 +46%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships G May 22 $100 +$50 +50%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $131 +$69 +52%
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $151 +$259 +171%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 17 $27 −$27 -99%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $36 −$32 -89%
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $121 −$79 -65%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 15 $51 +$29 +57%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $170 −$170 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Apr 30 $121 +$29 +24%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 29 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 29 $91 +$53 +58%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 21 $186 +$402 +216%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 20 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 17 $98 +$20 +20%
Will Si Woo Kim win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $42 −$15 -36%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $22 −$20 -91%
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners Apr 12 $50 +$75 +150%
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres Apr 12 $74 +$25 +34%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $65 −$65 -100%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-6.5) Apr 07 $50 +$48 +97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Apr 07 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 06 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 06 $24 +$68 +284%
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels Apr 04 $46 +$34 +72%
Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians Apr 04 $20 +$38 +188%
Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Apr 03 $26 +$24 +93%
New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners Apr 01 $50 −$50 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners Mar 31 $58 +$36 +63%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners Mar 31 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Natus Vincere win Blast Open Rotterdam 2026? Mar 31 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd Mar 30 $51 +$49 +96%
New York Yankees vs. San Francisco Giants Mar 26 $0 $0 +12%
Spread: Nuggets (-5.5) Mar 26 $34 −$34 -100%
Warriors vs. Mavericks Mar 24 $37 −$37 -100%
Counter-Strike: SportsBetExpert vs LAG Gaming (BO3) - ESL Challenger L Mar 24 $20 +$13 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 73¢ $145 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 75¢ $151 2h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 81¢ $81 2h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 27¢ $37 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 25¢ $20 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 44¢ $97 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $521 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $142 14d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $25 16d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 60¢ $31 24d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 60¢ $22 24d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 24d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 60¢ $94 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 50¢ $4 29d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 50¢ $10 29d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 50¢ $86 29d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic SELL Novak Djokovic 37¢ $91 29d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 53¢ $134 29d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $410 33d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $404 36d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships G BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $100 37d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 65¢ $131 37d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 63¢ $27 41d
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 28¢ $85 41d
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 41d
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 28¢ $17 41d
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 PGA Championship? SELL Yes $4 41d
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship? SELL Yes $42 41d
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship? SELL Yes $10 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,382.02 · official $1,375.02 (match) · 759 history records