Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:07:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

59
0x5999…ae94
other · 337 markets active 2d ago
9.0score
+$28,866 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$28,814 · open +$46
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5,391
Realized+$28,814
Unrealized+$46
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses272 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)332 / 337
History coverage429d
Avg bet$943
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit58%
Chart Positions 5 History 332 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,626
7 days+$5,116
14 days+$6,591
30 days+$6,752
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Yes 79¢ 91¢ $1,700 $1,948 +$248 (+15%)
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? No 78¢ 72¢ $1,426 $1,314 −$112 (-8%)
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $968 $997 +$29 (+3%)
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 39¢ 28¢ $934 $689 −$246 (-26%)
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? No 85¢ 91¢ $225 $241 +$16 (+7%)
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $203 $202 −$1 (-0%)
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $946 $0 −$946 (-100%)
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $184 $0 −$184 (-100%)
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 30, 2026? No 8¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will any other model have the best AI model on May 30, 2026? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $84 $0 −$84 (-100%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? Yes 75¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $1,094 $0 −$1,094 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $3,564 +$1,923 +54%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $3,396 +$1,704 +50%
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 09 $437 +$27 +6%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 19, 2026? Jun 09 $33 +$3 +9%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $1,597 +$245 +15%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $3,061 +$238 +8%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5,679 +$645 +11%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $2,659 +$300 +11%
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $1,044 +$77 +7%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2,138 +$89 +4%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $2,012 −$218 -11%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 06 $639 +$30 +5%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $1,850 +$54 +3%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $2,166 −$8 -0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $702 −$218 -31%
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1,363 +$222 +16%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $928 +$847 +91%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $4,140 +$633 +15%
Claude 4.8 released by June 15? May 28 $812 +$41 +5%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 28 $1,401 +$332 +24%
Will any other model have the best AI model on May 30, 2026? May 28 $86 −$84 -97%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 30, 2026? May 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 23 $57 −$57 -100%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026? May 23 $334 +$421 +126%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k? May 23 $975 +$2,932 +301%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? May 22 $835 −$819 -98%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? May 22 $5,910 −$1,422 -24%
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control May 21 $2,977 +$422 +14%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 550k and 600k? May 19 $218 −$203 -93%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? May 19 $149 −$149 -100%
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $964 −$946 -98%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 18 $5,192 −$388 -8%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 15, 2026? May 18 $226 +$26 +12%
Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $255 +$18 +7%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $200 +$1 +0%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 16, 2026? May 16 $289 +$34 +12%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 14 $83 +$17 +20%
Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026? May 08 $469 +$105 +22%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026? May 07 $10 +$7 +66%
Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be at leas May 02 $208 +$2 +1%
Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be between May 02 $235 +$3 +1%
Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be between May 02 $267 +$3 +1%
Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be between May 02 $1,898 +$317 +17%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $5,047 +$120 +2%
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $6,018 +$769 +13%
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $226 +$34 +15%
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? Apr 24 $1,159 +$101 +9%
GPT-5.5 released by June 30, 2026? Apr 24 $1,281 +$54 +4%
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr Apr 23 $1 $0 +41%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $355 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 45% +$8,534
tech 33% +$3,115
culture 13% +$9,948
politics 7% +$5,390
world 2% +$128
sports 1% +$1,711
economics 0% +$15
finance 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $226 39h
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut BUY No 64¢ $3,564 39h
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut BUY Yes 66¢ $3,396 39h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $1,714 39h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $157 2d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $112 2d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $5 2d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $38 2d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $14 2d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $24 2d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $27 2d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $10 2d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $20 2d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $20 2d
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 2d
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 2d
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 2d
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 2d
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 2d
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 2d
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 2d
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 2d
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 2d
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 2d
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 2d
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 2d
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 2d
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 2d
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 2d
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +13.3% +2.5% 92% 38% +6.9%
≤30d 37 +4.7% -5.3% 68% 41% +6.6%
≤90d 85 +8.6% -1.7% 80% 40% +2.9%
all 332 +12.3% +1.6% 82% 39% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.6% 39% -0.4%
10% -8.1% 22% -9.9%
15% -17.0% 14% -18.6%
20% -25.1% 11% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,391.11 · official $5,391.35 (match) · 1811 history records