Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:49:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
59 0x59a1…a8d1 other 156 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,537 (-14%) realized −$9,411 · open +$874
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -71% what you keep after slip
Net edge-71%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate7%39W / 491L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$388per market
Trades / day43.3pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$3,434now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$26,439
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-65.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 335 -93.7% -94.3% 1% 1% -97.8%
≤30d 391 -84.9% -86.3% 3% 3% -93.8%
≤90d 530 -62.1% -65.7% 7% 7% -78.9%
all 530 -62.1% -65.7% 7% 7% -78.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -65.7% 7% -78.9%
10% ← realistic here -69.0% 7% -81.0%
15% -72.0% 6% -82.8%
20% -74.7% 6% -84.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -90% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -62% · $-wt -90% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -30% → late -94% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$381 vs −$186 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$3,434
Realized−$9,411
Unrealized+$874
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses39 / 491
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions33
Markets (closed)530 / 156
History coverage77d ⚠
Avg bet$388
Trades / day43.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 530 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 12¢ 42¢ $226 $792 +$566 (+251%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 38¢ $70 $682 +$613 (+875%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 24¢ $61 $371 +$311 (+511%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 50¢ 22¢ $790 $356 −$434 (-55%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 22¢ $61 $340 +$279 (+459%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 5¢ 11¢ $100 $212 +$112 (+113%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 10¢ $61 $166 +$105 (+173%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 10¢ $61 $166 +$105 (+173%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $70 $155 +$85 (+121%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $61 $61 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $61 $55 −$5 (-9%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $30 $18 −$13 (-42%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $47 $15 −$33 (-69%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $70 $14 −$56 (-80%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $43 $8 −$35 (-80%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $50 $7 −$43 (-86%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $30 $7 −$24 (-78%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $27 $3 −$24 (-88%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $70 $1 −$69 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $61 $1 −$60 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $61 $1 −$60 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $61 $1 −$60 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $61 $1 −$60 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $61 $1 −$60 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $61 $1 −$60 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 458 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 17 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 17 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 17 $138 −$138 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 17 $67 −$67 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Jun 17 $11 −$265 -2343%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 17 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 17 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 17 $21 −$59 -277%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 17 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 17 $146 +$76 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$58 -753%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$52 -670%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 17 $138 −$138 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $71 −$128 -179%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$57 -745%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 17 $138 −$138 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 17 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 17 $9 −$121 -1375%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 17 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Jun 17 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 17 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jun 17 $627 −$627 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026 Jun 17 $50 −$173 -343%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 17 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 17 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026 Jun 17 $147 −$167 -113%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 17 $138 −$138 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026 Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 17 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026? Jun 17 $615 −$615 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $23 −$33 -142%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 17 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 17 $138 −$138 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Jun 17 $235 −$235 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$22 -440%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Jun 17 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 17 $168 −$168 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 2h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 2h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 2h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 10h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 10h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 10h
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 10h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 11h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 20h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 20h
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 20h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 20h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 20h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 21h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 21h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 21h
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 21h
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 21h
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 21h
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 21h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 21h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $61 27h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $30 34h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 34h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,433.98 · official $3,434.60 (match) · 3500 history records