Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:14:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
59 0x59a6…9929 other 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$1,126 (+73%) realized +$1,127 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$257per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$1,291
sports 10% +$33
crypto 2% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +23.5% +11.7% 80% 80% +69.6%
≤30d 5 +23.5% +11.7% 80% 80% +69.6%
≤90d 5 +23.5% +11.7% 80% 80% +69.6%
all 5 +23.5% +11.7% 80% 80% +69.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.7% 80% +69.6%
10% +1.0% 60% +53.4%
15% -8.7% 60% +38.5%
20% -17.7% 20% +25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +87% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +87% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$331 vs −$25 · ×13.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×53.02 per $1 lost it wins $53.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$1,127
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$257
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $203 +$80 +39%
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Jun 24 $151 +$33 +22%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $126 +$47 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $982 +$1,165 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 7m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 63¢ $283 23m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 44¢ $203 36m
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North SELL Azure Dragon Gaming 100¢ $184 40m
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North BUY Azure Dragon Gaming 81¢ $151 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $173 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $126 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 39h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $982 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.00 · official $49.00 (match) · 10 history records