Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:03:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

59 0x59a6…6987 other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$620 (-51%) realized −$631 · open +$11

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip

Net edge-32%after slip

Net WR21%break-even

Win rate21%6W / 23L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$39per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Kalshi-fit42%portable

Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +21%

net ROI/market (all)-32.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	29	-25.0%	-32.1%	21%	21%	-56.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-32.1%	21%	-56.2%
10%	-38.6%	21%	-60.4%
15%	-44.6%	21%	-64.2%
20%	-50.0%	21%	-67.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -25% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -35% → late -16% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$64 vs −$44 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.38 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage

Net worth$27

Realized−$631

Unrealized+$11

Win rate (resolved)21%

Wins / losses6 / 23

Open positions2

Markets (closed)29 / 31

History coverage146d

Avg bet$39

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 29 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	14¢	42¢	$6	$18	+$12 (+196%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05?	May 05	$37	−$37	-98%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?	Mar 18	$100	−$100	-100%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw?	Mar 06	$41	−$41	-100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-05?	Mar 05	$187	−$187	-100%
Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2026-02-18?	Feb 18	$143	−$143	-100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17?	Feb 17	$66	+$77	+117%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-17?	Feb 17	$20	+$45	+222%
Will Antalyaspor win on 2026-02-07?	Feb 07	$49	−$49	-100%
Will Elche CF vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?	Jan 31	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?	Jan 31	$83	−$73	-88%
Will Chelsea FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw?	Jan 31	$45	−$45	-100%
Spurs vs. Hornets	Jan 31	$40	−$40	-100%
Will Rodez Aveyron Football vs. Red Star FC end in a draw?	Jan 31	$24	+$59	+245%
Will Antalyaspor vs. Trabzonspor end in a draw?	Jan 31	$23	+$62	+270%
Will Clermont Foot 63 vs. Stade de Reims end in a draw?	Jan 30	$23	−$23	-100%
Will FC Viktoria Plzeň win on 2026-01-29?	Jan 30	$21	+$49	+233%
Will GNK Dinamo Zagreb win on 2026-01-29?	Jan 29	$28	−$28	-100%
Will PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. OGC Nice end in a draw?	Jan 29	$20	−$20	-100%
Will BSC Young Boys win on 2026-01-29?	Jan 29	$21	−$21	-100%
Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2026-01-29?	Jan 29	$21	−$21	-100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?	Jan 29	$21	+$90	+426%
Will Páfos FC vs. SK Slavia Praha end in a draw?	Jan 28	$21	−$21	-100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-28?	Jan 28	$21	−$21	-100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-28?	Jan 28	$21	−$21	-100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-01-28?	Jan 28	$21	−$21	-100%
Will BSC Young Boys win on 2026-01-22?	Jan 22	$21	−$21	-100%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit and tie at the World Economic Forum?	Jan 21	$11	−$11	-100%
Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2026-01-21?	Jan 21	$36	−$25	-68%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-01-21?	Jan 21	$29	−$24	-83%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	12¢	$11	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	14¢	$6	1h
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05?	BUY Yes	18¢	$37	41d
Will FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$100	89d
Will FC Bayern München vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$41	101d
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-05?	BUY Yes	16¢	$187	101d
Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2026-02-18?	BUY Yes	12¢	$143	117d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$143	117d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17?	BUY Yes	46¢	$66	118d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$66	118d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-17?	BUY Yes	31¢	$20	118d
Will Antalyaspor win on 2026-02-07?	BUY Yes	16¢	$49	128d
Will Elche CF vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	134d
Will Liverpool FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?	SELL Yes	3¢	$10	134d
Will Liverpool FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?	BUY Yes	25¢	$83	134d
Will Chelsea FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$45	135d
Spurs vs. Hornets	BUY Spurs	26¢	$40	135d
Will Rodez Aveyron Football vs. Red Star FC end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$24	136d
Will Clermont Foot 63 vs. Stade de Reims end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$23	136d
Will Antalyaspor vs. Trabzonspor end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$23	136d
Will GNK Dinamo Zagreb win on 2026-01-29?	BUY Yes	23¢	$28	137d
Will PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. OGC Nice end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$20	137d
Will FC Viktoria Plzeň win on 2026-01-29?	BUY Yes	30¢	$21	137d
Will BSC Young Boys win on 2026-01-29?	BUY Yes	7¢	$21	137d
Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2026-01-29?	BUY Yes	14¢	$21	137d
Will Páfos FC vs. SK Slavia Praha end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$21	137d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-28?	BUY Yes	36¢	$21	137d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?	BUY Yes	19¢	$21	138d
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-28?	BUY Yes	28¢	$21	138d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-01-28?	BUY Yes	9¢	$21	138d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.32 · official $27.32 (match) · 42 history records